近期，種子管理局會同全國農(nong)(nong)技中(zhong)心對今(jin)年春夏播(bo)作物種子收獲(huo)和秋(qiu)冬種作物制(zhi)繁種落實情(qing)況(kuang)進行了調度分析，明年主(zhu)要農(nong)(nong)作物種子總量供給(gei)充足，能夠(gou)滿足生(sheng)產需求(qiu)。

      一(yi)、春夏播作物種子情況

      （一）玉米種(zhong)子(zi)仍保持供大于求(qiu)態勢。今年(nian)全國玉(yu)米(mi)制(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)積342萬畝，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)16%，因新疆(jiang)、甘肅遭(zao)受高溫(wen)災(zai)害以及云南遭(zao)受旱(han)澇災(zai)害導(dao)致(zhi)一部分減產，共收(shou)獲種(zhong)子(zi)10.96億公斤(jin)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)8.5%。結合期末有效庫(ku)存量(liang)7.5億公斤(jin)，明年(nian)春夏播玉(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)總(zong)供給量(liang)為18.46億公斤(jin)。預(yu)計明年(nian)用種(zhong)量(liang)11.5-12億公斤(jin)，總(zong)供給量(liang)充足(zu)。

      （二）雜交水稻種(zhong)子(zi)供求出現結(jie)構分化。今年雜交(jiao)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)制種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)145萬畝，同比(bi)增加3.6%，共(gong)收(shou)獲(huo)種(zhong)子(zi)2.39億公斤(jin)，同比(bi)增加3.9%。結(jie)合期末有效庫存量的1億公斤(jin)，明(ming)年雜交(jiao)水(shui)(shui)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)可(ke)供總量3.39億公斤(jin)。預(yu)計明(ming)年國內(nei)用種(zhong)和出口2.5億公斤(jin)，能夠滿足明(ming)年生(sheng)產需(xu)求。從品種(zhong)類型看，明(ming)年“三系”稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)供給過剩(sheng)依(yi)然嚴重，“兩系”早稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)子(zi)供需(xu)基本(ben)平衡(heng)，在江西(xi)等地可(ke)能會出現緊平衡(heng)。

      （三）其他作物種子供需平衡有余。今年常規稻制種面積164萬畝，收獲種子8.18億公斤。預計常規稻種植面積穩中略增，需種子6.6億公斤，今年新產種子量可以滿足保證明年用種需求。棉花制種面積78萬畝，收獲種子7532萬公斤。其中雜交棉2萬畝，產量約178萬公斤；常規棉76萬畝，產量7354萬公斤。明年雜交棉和常規棉種子供給總量分別可達478萬公斤、11474萬公斤，預計明年雜交棉種植面積1100萬畝，常規棉3900萬畝，分別需種子420萬公斤、8800萬公斤，能夠滿足明年生產用種需求。大豆繁(fan)種(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)242萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，收獲種(zhong)子3.72億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤。預計明(ming)年(nian)(nian)全國大豆種(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)9200萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，需(xu)種(zhong)子3.3億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤，能(neng)夠滿足明(ming)年(nian)(nian)商品用種(zhong)需(xu)求(qiu)。馬(ma)鈴薯大田用種(zhong)薯面(mian)積(ji)446萬(wan)畝(mu)(mu)，總產70億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤；種(zhong)薯主產區甘肅受伏旱(han)和秋旱(han)影響減產10%以上，內蒙古部分地區收獲期遭遇降(jiang)雨，給種(zhong)薯質(zhi)量(liang)帶來安(an)全隱患。預計明(ming)年(nian)(nian)馬(ma)鈴薯種(zhong)植(zhi)面(mian)積(ji)穩中趨增，需(xu)要(yao)種(zhong)薯53億(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤，今年(nian)(nian)新(xin)繁(fan)種(zhong)薯量(liang)能(neng)滿足明(ming)年(nian)(nian)用種(zhong)需(xu)求(qiu)。

      二、秋冬種作物制繁種情況

      （一）冬小麥種子總量能夠滿足(zu)(zu)需求。秋冬(dong)種落(luo)實小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)繁(fan)種面(mian)積1103萬畝(mu)，同比減少100萬畝(mu)，預(yu)計(ji)產種46億公斤(jin)。預(yu)計(ji)明年秋冬(dong)種小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)種植面(mian)積穩中(zhong)有略增(zeng)趨勢，能夠滿足(zu)(zu)明年秋冬(dong)種小(xiao)麥(mai)(mai)用種需求。

      （二）冬油菜種(zhong)子(zi)供需有(you)余。秋冬(dong)(dong)種(zhong)落實油菜(cai)(cai)種(zhong)子(zi)生產面積(ji)12萬(wan)畝(mu)，預(yu)計可產種(zhong)子(zi)1135萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤。其中(zhong)，雜交(jiao)冬(dong)(dong)油菜(cai)(cai)制種(zhong)面積(ji)9萬(wan)畝(mu)，預(yu)計產量(liang)667萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤；常規冬(dong)(dong)油菜(cai)(cai)繁種(zhong)面積(ji)3萬(wan)畝(mu)，預(yu)計產量(liang)468萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤。結(jie)合期末有(you)效庫存量(liang)300萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤，預(yu)計明年秋冬(dong)(dong)種(zhong)油菜(cai)(cai)需種(zhong)1300萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤，總量(liang)能夠(gou)滿足需求。

      三、保障農(nong)業生(sheng)產用種安全工作措施

      針對今年(nian)雜(za)交玉米和(he)(he)雜(za)交水稻制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)主產(chan)區(qu)(qu)受災較重，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子企(qi)(qi)業制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)成本增加(jia)(jia)，可能(neng)會出現部分入(ru)庫包裝的(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子質(zhi)量較低，下(xia)一步將采取以(yi)下(xia)措施確(que)(que)保明(ming)年(nian)供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)安(an)全。一是加(jia)(jia)大監督檢查(cha)的(de)力度。繼續開展打擊(ji)侵犯品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)權和(he)(he)制(zhi)售(shou)假劣(lie)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子專項行(xing)動(dong)，嚴厲打擊(ji)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)套牌侵權、未(wei)審(shen)先推等(deng)違法(fa)行(xing)為(wei)；強(qiang)化省(sheng)際間打假聯(lian)動(dong)機制(zhi)，加(jia)(jia)大區(qu)(qu)域性制(zhi)假售(shou)假專項治理打擊(ji)行(xing)動(dong)的(de)力度。二是完(wan)善種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)需(xu)調度分析。進一步改進產(chan)供(gong)需(xu)調度工作(zuo)(zuo)方法(fa)，建立(li)全國(guo)統(tong)一的(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子企(qi)(qi)業生(sheng)產(chan)經營檔案系(xi)統(tong)，使種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子產(chan)供(gong)需(xu)形勢(shi)預測(ce)更加(jia)(jia)準確(que)(que)，確(que)(que)保農業生(sheng)產(chan)供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)安(an)全和(he)(he)市場平穩(wen)(wen)運行(xing)。三是加(jia)(jia)強(qiang)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)源調度和(he)(he)調劑(ji)。準確(que)(que)掌握種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)需(xu)，指(zhi)導省(sheng)際間、地區(qu)(qu)間、品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間余(yu)缺(que)調劑(ji)，及時(shi)發布行(xing)情(qing)信息，防范借機炒(chao)作(zuo)(zuo)、以(yi)次(ci)充好，確(que)(que)保市場穩(wen)(wen)定。