1 重要農作物種子供給分析

      1.1 種子生產供給

      2024年內蒙古自治區主要(yao)制繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)作物有(you)(you)雜交(jiao)玉米(mi)、馬鈴(ling)薯、大豆以及雜糧雜豆等。其中，雜交(jiao)玉米(mi)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)2.31萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，同比(bi)增加(jia)0.32萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，近(jin)5年玉米(mi)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)逐(zhu)年擴大，2024年首次(ci)超過2.00萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，新產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)12170.07萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，增幅16.68%，上(shang)季(ji)有(you)(you)效庫(ku)存1845.84萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總(zong)(zong)(zong)供給(gei)量(liang)14015.91萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg。大豆生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)3.90萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，同比(bi)增加(jia)1.16萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，較2020年翻(fan)一番，新產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)9601.94萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，有(you)(you)效庫(ku)存77.85萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總(zong)(zong)(zong)供給(gei)量(liang)9679.79萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg。馬鈴(ling)薯原(yuan)原(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)10.32億粒，原(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.90萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，大田(tian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯2.25萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，同比(bi)增加(jia)1.07萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，處(chu)于近(jin)5年平(ping)均水平(ping)，總(zong)(zong)(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)達(da)到17.09億kg。谷子(zi)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)0.048萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，同比(bi)減少0.033萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，接近(jin)近(jin)5年均值(zhi)，總(zong)(zong)(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)194.40萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，上(shang)季(ji)有(you)(you)效庫(ku)存1.10萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總(zong)(zong)(zong)供給(gei)量(liang)195.50萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg。高粱生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積(ji)(ji)0.079萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，同比(bi)減少0.017萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)hm²，高于近(jin)5年均值(zhi)，總(zong)(zong)(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)344.91萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，上(shang)季(ji)有(you)(you)效庫(ku)存14.70萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)總(zong)(zong)(zong)供給(gei)量(liang)359.61萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)kg。

      1.2 重點種子基地供給

      全區(qu)(qu)共有7個盟市落實(shi)玉米制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)基地(di)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)分布在赤(chi)峰(feng)市，總面積為1.60萬(wan)hm²，占全區(qu)(qu)69%左右，其(qi)中(zhong)，國(guo)家級(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)縣(xian)(xian)赤(chi)峰(feng)市松(song)山區(qu)(qu)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.41萬(wan)hm²，自(zi)治(zhi)(zhi)區(qu)(qu)級(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)縣(xian)(xian)翁牛特旗(qi)(qi)(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.29萬(wan)hm²。大(da)(da)(da)豆(dou)繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)集(ji)中(zhong)在呼(hu)倫(lun)貝(bei)爾(er)(er)市嶺東四(si)旗(qi)(qi)(qi)，莫力(li)達瓦達斡(wo)(wo)爾(er)(er)族(zu)自(zi)治(zhi)(zhi)旗(qi)(qi)(qi)、鄂倫(lun)春自(zi)治(zhi)(zhi)旗(qi)(qi)(qi)、阿榮旗(qi)(qi)(qi)、扎蘭屯市，其(qi)中(zhong)國(guo)家級(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)縣(xian)(xian)莫力(li)達瓦達斡(wo)(wo)爾(er)(er)族(zu)自(zi)治(zhi)(zhi)旗(qi)(qi)(qi)繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.85萬(wan)hm²，鄂倫(lun)春自(zi)治(zhi)(zhi)旗(qi)(qi)(qi)繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.78萬(wan)hm²。馬鈴(ling)薯繁(fan)(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)基地(di)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)集(ji)中(zhong)在烏(wu)蘭察(cha)布市（原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)4.75億粒、原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.96萬(wan)hm²、大(da)(da)(da)田(tian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯1.71萬(wan)hm²）、呼(hu)倫(lun)貝(bei)爾(er)(er)市（原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.13億粒、原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.59萬(wan)hm²、大(da)(da)(da)田(tian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯0.36萬(wan)hm²）和錫林郭勒盟（原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.73億粒、原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.23萬(wan)hm²、大(da)(da)(da)田(tian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯0.063萬(wan)hm²），其(qi)中(zhong)國(guo)家級(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大(da)(da)(da)縣(xian)(xian)四(si)子王旗(qi)(qi)(qi)落實(shi)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)1.75億粒、原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.15萬(wan)hm²、大(da)(da)(da)田(tian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯0.13萬(wan)hm²，察(cha)右前旗(qi)(qi)(qi)落實(shi)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.039萬(wan)hm²、大(da)(da)(da)田(tian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯0.031萬(wan)hm²，正藍旗(qi)(qi)(qi)落實(shi)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.31億粒，原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.033萬(wan)hm²，大(da)(da)(da)田(tian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯0.020萬(wan)hm²。谷(gu)子制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在赤(chi)峰(feng)市，其(qi)中(zhong)區(qu)(qu)域性良繁(fan)(fan)基地(di)敖(ao)漢(han)旗(qi)(qi)(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.035萬(wan)hm²，占比72.92%。高粱制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)在赤(chi)峰(feng)市，其(qi)中(zhong)區(qu)(qu)域性良繁(fan)(fan)基地(di)敖(ao)漢(han)旗(qi)(qi)(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)0.067萬(wan)hm²，占比84.81%。

      1.3 重點種子企業供給

      通過對內蒙古巴彥淖爾市科河種業有限公司、內蒙古興豐種業有限公司、內蒙古利禾農業科技發(fa)展有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司等(deng)6家重點(dian)種(zhong)(zhong)子企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的調度，2024年(nian)雜交玉米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子庫存較高(gao)，企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)調整生產(chan)計(ji)劃，整體縮減制種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積約(yue)0.20萬hm²，2024年(nian)玉米(mi)雜交種(zhong)(zhong)子收(shou)獲(huo)面(mian)積0.79萬hm²；主要(yao)(yao)制種(zhong)(zhong)品種(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)豐田101、科(ke)(ke)(ke)河699、西(xi)蒙(meng)3358、M1573、宏博701、興科(ke)(ke)(ke)5號(hao)、利禾1、豐墾(ken)139等(deng)。通過對內蒙(meng)古(gu)(gu)瑞(rui)楊種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)股份(fen)有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司、呼倫貝(bei)爾(er)市(shi)中(zhong)農種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司、莫力達(da)瓦達(da)斡爾(er)族自治旗登科(ke)(ke)(ke)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)責任(ren)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司3家重點(dian)種(zhong)(zhong)子企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的調度，共(gong)收(shou)獲(huo)大(da)(da)豆(dou)1.57萬hm²；繁育品種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積較大(da)(da)的有(you)(you)登科(ke)(ke)(ke)5號(hao)、黑科(ke)(ke)(ke)59、華疆2號(hao)、蒙(meng)豆(dou)48、蒙(meng)科(ke)(ke)(ke)豆(dou)9號(hao)、鑫興8號(hao)等(deng)。全(quan)區共(gong)有(you)(you)4家馬鈴(ling)薯繁種(zhong)(zhong)重點(dian)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，即內蒙(meng)古(gu)(gu)坤元太(tai)和農業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)科(ke)(ke)(ke)技有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司、內蒙(meng)古(gu)(gu)格瑞(rui)得馬鈴(ling)薯種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)集團有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司、內蒙(meng)古(gu)(gu)中(zhong)加農業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生物科(ke)(ke)(ke)技有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司、內蒙(meng)古(gu)(gu)鑫雨種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司，共(gong)收(shou)獲(huo)原原種(zhong)(zhong)1.96億(yi)粒，原種(zhong)(zhong)0.27萬hm²，大(da)(da)田種(zhong)(zhong)薯0.23萬hm²；主要(yao)(yao)品種(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)希森6號(hao)、中(zhong)加7、冀張(zhang)薯12、v7、大(da)(da)西(xi)洋、麥肯、費烏瑞(rui)它(ta)等(deng)。

      2 重要農作物種子(zi)需求

      2.1 雜交玉米種子需求

      玉米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子供求形勢受玉米(mi)(mi)及(ji)其替代品進口量、國際玉米(mi)(mi)收成與價(jia)格、農(nong)業(ye)政策等因(yin)素影響。通過(guo)對內蒙古自治區12個盟市農(nong)作物(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)面(mian)積的(de)調度統計，預計2025年全(quan)區玉米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)面(mian)積在(zai)466.67萬hm²左(zuo)右，需(xu)商品種(zhong)(zhong)子13440萬kg。供需(xu)比104%，生產(chan)與需(xu)求處于緊平衡(heng)狀態。隨著大面(mian)積單產(chan)提升行動推進，耐(nai)密植(zhi)(zhi)、中(zhong)小穗、多抗、耐(nai)逆境品種(zhong)(zhong)接受度提高。

      2.2 大豆種子需求

      為穩定大(da)豆種(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)，內蒙(meng)古(gu)自治區呼倫貝爾市積(ji)極調(diao)整各項補貼政策(ce)，集中發(fa)力，支持大(da)豆生(sheng)產。2024年(nian)(nian)大(da)豆種(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)126.88萬(wan)hm²，超出(chu)目標任務(wu)5.35萬(wan)hm²，較2023年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)8.04萬(wan)hm²。經(jing)調(diao)度(du)統計，預(yu)計2025年(nian)(nian)大(da)豆種(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)在(zai)120萬(wan)hm²以上，商品種(zhong)子用(yong)量5818.71萬(wan)kg，供給(gei)端(duan)大(da)于(yu)需求端(duan)，高(gao)蛋(dan)白大(da)豆品種(zhong)受到市場歡迎。

      2.3 馬鈴薯種子需求

      近年來，受農業用水控制的影響，內蒙古自治區烏蘭察布市在逐步調整種植結構，馬鈴薯的種植面積逐年減少。2024年馬鈴薯的播種面積28.50萬hm²，相比2023年減少4.73萬hm²。經調度統計，預計2025年播種面積26.67萬hm²，商品馬鈴薯種子用量約為4.62億kg，供給端遠大于需求端。生產的種薯除供應本區種植外，還銷往云南、貴州、山(shan)(shan)東及山(shan)(shan)西等(deng)省區，市場需(xu)求趨(qu)向于(yu)具有抗逆(ni)性強(qiang)、適(shi)應性廣、耐(nai)貯藏的品(pin)種。

      2.4 谷子高粱種子需求

      2024年(nian)受谷(gu)子市場價偏(pian)高(gao)(gao)的影響，谷(gu)子大(da)田種植面(mian)積28.47萬(wan)hm²，比2023年(nian)增加0.97萬(wan)hm²。經調度(du)統計，預計2025年(nian)谷(gu)子種植面(mian)積26.00萬(wan)hm²，大(da)田商品(pin)種子用(yong)量(liang)156.00萬(wan)kg，供給(gei)端(duan)大(da)于(yu)需(xu)求端(duan)。品(pin)種需(xu)求以(yi)抗(kang)倒伏、適(shi)應(ying)性(xing)廣、抗(kang)旱性(xing)強、秧苗的品(pin)質高(gao)(gao)、出谷(gu)量(liang)高(gao)(gao)為主。預計高(gao)(gao)粱大(da)田種植面(mian)積12.00萬(wan)hm²，大(da)田商品(pin)種子用(yong)量(liang)129.60萬(wan)kg，供給(gei)端(duan)大(da)于(yu)需(xu)求端(duan)。

      3 農(nong)作物種子市(shi)場運(yun)行(xing)分析

      3.1 農作物種子市場價格分析

      2024年(nian)內蒙古農(nong)作物種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場供應量足、質優、價(jia)(jia)(jia)穩(wen)(wen)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場整體(ti)平穩(wen)(wen)。玉米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)與2023年(nian)基(ji)本持平，大(da)田玉米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)定(ding)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)間(jian)為(wei)21~48元(yuan)/kg，加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)平均價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)約(yue)為(wei)32元(yuan)/kg，由于雜交玉米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)庫存積壓，預(yu)計2025年(nian)市(shi)場啟動提前，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)呈下(xia)降趨(qu)勢(shi)。大(da)豆種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)不同品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在8~15元(yuan)/kg之(zhi)間(jian)，加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)平均價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)約(yue)為(wei)9.7元(yuan)/kg，較(jiao)2023年(nian)變化不大(da)，預(yu)計2025年(nian)大(da)豆種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)持平或略(lve)降。馬鈴薯原種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)平均價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)約(yue)為(wei)3.6元(yuan)/kg，大(da)田種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)平均價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)約(yue)為(wei)3.2元(yuan)/kg，受(shou)氣候及(ji)馬鈴薯行情影(ying)響(xiang)，2024年(nian)部分收獲的(de)馬鈴薯種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯濕度較(jiao)大(da)、不易(yi)倉儲，轉為(wei)商品(pin)薯的(de)數(shu)量較(jiao)往(wang)年(nian)有所增加(jia)(jia)(jia)，預(yu)計2025年(nian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)略(lve)增長。谷(gu)子(zi)(zi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)定(ding)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)間(jian)為(wei)100~260元(yuan)/kg，加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)單價(jia)(jia)(jia)124.8元(yuan)/kg，與往(wang)年(nian)持平；高(gao)粱種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)定(ding)價(jia)(jia)(jia)區(qu)(qu)間(jian)為(wei)18~50元(yuan)/kg，加(jia)(jia)(jia)權(quan)單價(jia)(jia)(jia)37.26元(yuan)/kg，預(yu)計2025年(nian)谷(gu)子(zi)(zi)、高(gao)粱價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)平穩(wen)(wen)。

      3.2 種子營銷模式分析

      內蒙古主要農(nong)作物種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)模(mo)式(shi)與往年基本(ben)相同(tong)，仍以公司—經銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)商—零售(shou)(shou)(shou)商三級銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)渠道為主，少部分(fen)為直銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)模(mo)式(shi)和電商銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)種(zhong)(zhong)，由企業(ye)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)人員直接進村入戶，采(cai)取講課(ke)、發傳(chuan)單、送禮品等(deng)促銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)模(mo)式(shi)，現(xian)場銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)。種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)企業(ye)及銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)門店利(li)用(yong)新(xin)媒體（快手(shou)、抖音(yin)、微信(xin)）等(deng)線上宣(xuan)傳(chuan)工(gong)具，對廣大(da)農(nong)戶進行品種(zhong)(zhong)及科學栽(zai)培技(ji)術(shu)宣(xuan)講等(deng)促進種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)，有效降低了銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)成本(ben)，涵蓋銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)區域也比以前擴(kuo)大(da)。由于近幾年土地流轉速(su)度(du)加快，“大(da)農(nong)戶帶動(dong)小農(nong)戶”現(xian)象(xiang)越(yue)來越(yue)明顯，種(zhong)(zhong)植大(da)戶和合作社(she)對種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場的(de)主導(dao)性(xing)、引導(dao)性(xing)的(de)趨勢越(yue)來越(yue)強(qiang)。

      4 做好農作物種子產供需形式分析的對策

      4.1 健全種子產供需服務體系，提升決策支撐和行業服務水平

      種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)產(chan)(chan)供(gong)需(xu)調度(du)是評估用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)安全的(de)重(zhong)要(yao)手段，是守好種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)源自主可(ke)控與(yu)糧食生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)安全的(de)底線，是種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)情(qing)監測調度(du)體系的(de)重(zhong)要(yao)責任。農作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)產(chan)(chan)供(gong)需(xu)調度(du)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)工(gong)作(zuo)要(yao)注重(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)安全、品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構安全并重(zhong)，要(yao)堅持定(ding)性(xing)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)與(yu)定(ding)量(liang)(liang)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)相(xiang)結合的(de)方法。一是加強(qiang)(qiang)調查研(yan)究，提(ti)(ti)高數(shu)(shu)據(ju)準確性(xing)。確保(bao)(bao)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)、加工(gong)、庫存等供(gong)給端(duan)和(he)畝用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)、商品化率、生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)方式等需(xu)求(qiu)端(duan)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)的(de)精準性(xing)。二是加強(qiang)(qiang)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)，全力(li)提(ti)(ti)升研(yan)判(pan)水(shui)平。細化到品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、旗縣、企業，盡量(liang)(liang)減少結構性(xing)短缺。三是做(zuo)好生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)指(zhi)導(dao)，強(qiang)(qiang)化防(fang)災減災預警，及時(shi)發布種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)指(zhi)導(dao)意見(jian)。指(zhi)導(dao)企業科學調整種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)規模，保(bao)(bao)障全區農業生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)充足、品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)多(duo)樣與(yu)供(gong)應(ying)均衡(heng)。

      4.2 提高市場觀察點監測效能，科學分析研判市場運行狀況

      種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)是(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)流通(tong)鏈中問題集中表現且(qie)最受行(xing)(xing)業各方關注(zhu)的(de)(de)一(yi)環(huan)，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)可實(shi)(shi)現種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)信(xin)息實(shi)(shi)時(shi)采集、實(shi)(shi)時(shi)發布(bu)、智(zhi)能分析，在(zai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業發展(zhan)全局中的(de)(de)地位不斷提升。發揮好(hao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)觀(guan)察點作用，精準監(jian)測(ce)(ce)轄區內重要農作物(wu)(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)動態。一(yi)是(shi)嚴格(ge)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)觀(guan)察點備案管理，持續(xu)優化(hua)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)布(bu)局，進(jin)一(yi)步擴大主糧作物(wu)(wu)、油料作物(wu)(wu)及蔬菜作物(wu)(wu)的(de)(de)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)類，提升監(jian)測(ce)(ce)預(yu)警的(de)(de)時(shi)效(xiao)性(xing)。二是(shi)要做好(hao)業務培訓指導，提升觀(guan)察點報送質量，加大監(jian)測(ce)(ce)調度頻(pin)次(ci)，加強(qiang)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)觀(guan)察點績效(xiao)管理，提高(gao)觀(guan)察點監(jian)測(ce)(ce)效(xiao)能。三是(shi)強(qiang)化(hua)數(shu)據分析利用，服務農業生(sheng)產需求。加強(qiang)轄區主導品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)、市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)等情況(kuang)的(de)(de)梳理總結(jie)，及時(shi)形成種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)情通(tong)報，對市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)運(yun)行(xing)(xing)狀(zhuang)況(kuang)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)科(ke)學分析研判。（參考文獻略）

      ?本文來自(zi)《內蒙古自(zi)治區(qu)2024年農(nong)作物種子產供需形勢分析及(ji)對(dui)策(ce)》

      ?作者(zhe)：李(li)燕敏(min),張素青,郭琳,楊(yang)新宇,李(li)純燕,包德軍,魏娟,莫(mo)亞麗

      ?單位(wei)：內蒙古自治區農(nong)牧(mu)業技術(shu)推廣中心；包頭市農(nong)牧(mu)科(ke)學研究所；內蒙古自治區農(nong)田(tian)建設服務中心

      ?刊于《中國種業》2025年(nian)第3期(qi)5-7頁 轉載請注明