研報  銀河證券

      1、事件

      公司公布(bu)2015年(nian)年(nian)報(bao):報(bao)告期內實現營(ying)業收入20.26億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)長11.59%;歸(gui)母凈(jing)(jing)利(li)潤(run)4.91億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)長35.65%;扣非后的凈(jing)(jing)利(li)潤(run)3.61億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)長39.17%;攤薄后EPS為0.39元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),基本符合預期。其中第四季度(du)實現營(ying)收11.4億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)14.7%,歸(gui)母凈(jing)(jing)利(li)潤(run)3.59億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)45.9%,EPS為0.29元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。另外,公司公布(bu)分紅預案,擬向全體股(gu)東每10股(gu)派發現金(jin)紅利(li)2元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(含稅)。

      2、我們的分(fen)析與判斷(duan)

      種子產品結構性優化,蔬菜種子收入大幅增長。2014/2015年度,公司水稻種子實現收入10.89億元,同比增長15.67%,占比提升至53.8%;玉米種子收入4.18億元,同比增長1.47%,占比達到20.6%;蔬菜瓜果種子1.27億元,同比增長203.73%,占比上升4%至6.27%;而辣椒及辣椒制品的收入為1.63億元,同比下降35.43%,占比下降6%至8%。由于水稻、玉米、蔬菜種子的毛利率較高均超40%,而辣椒種子的毛利率不到10%,縮減辣椒及辣椒制品的生產和銷售比例有利于公司種子產品的結構進一步優化。報告期內公司蔬菜種子的收入實現了大幅增長,主要源于期間公司完成對天津德瑞特種業和綠豐園藝80%股權的收購,并于三季度起并表,分別貢獻利潤2771.8萬元和658.2萬元。天津德瑞特種業和綠豐園藝是我國黃瓜種子的龍(long)頭(tou)企業,后續儲(chu)備豐富。公司對德瑞(rui)特的成功收購使對蔬菜種子的產(chan)業布局逐漸加速。

      老(lao)牌優(you)勢(shi)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)表現(xian)穩(wen)定,新(xin)(xin)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)儲(chu)(chu)備豐(feng)富(fu)。結構(gou)性(xing)供(gong)給(gei)側改革和(he)新(xin)(xin)《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)法》的(de)(de)(de)出臺為具(ju)有(you)優(you)秀商(shang)業育(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)能力的(de)(de)(de)大(da)型種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)企業打(da)開(kai)了市(shi)場空(kong)間。1)水(shui)稻(dao)方面(mian):公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)自(zi)主(zhu)研發的(de)(de)(de)水(shui)稻(dao)老(lao)牌優(you)勢(shi)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)Y兩優(you)一號(hao)、深兩優(you)5814報(bao)告(gao)期(qi)(qi)內表現(xian)穩(wen)定;公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)以(yi)擁有(you)自(zi)主(zhu)知識產權的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)育(yu)系“隆(long)(long)(long)科638S”、“晶4155S”配(pei)組出的(de)(de)(de)“隆(long)(long)(long)兩優(you)”、“晶兩優(you)”系列優(you)良(liang)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)表現(xian)突出,其中隆(long)(long)(long)兩優(you)華占預(yu)計2016年(nian)訂購(gou)200萬公(gong)(gong)斤,推(tui)廣(guang)至5個(ge)省份,預(yu)計推(tui)廣(guang)面(mian)積(ji)達300萬畝(mu)(mu);目前公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)在利潤(run)較高的(de)(de)(de)中稻(dao)市(shi)場份額(e)已(yi)經達到(dao)10%-15%,預(yu)計未來將(jiang)達到(dao)40%。2)玉米方面(mian):公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)自(zi)主(zhu)研發的(de)(de)(de)玉米品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)隆(long)(long)(long)平(ping)206的(de)(de)(de)推(tui)廣(guang)面(mian)積(ji)達到(dao)1300-1500萬畝(mu)(mu),玉米儲(chu)(chu)備品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)包(bao)括隆(long)(long)(long)平(ping)208、隆(long)(long)(long)平(ping)211等(deng);公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)還在美國和(he)阿根廷建立玉米的(de)(de)(de)育(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)站,以(yi)加強(qiang)玉米科研育(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)力。3)銷(xiao)售(shou)模(mo)式:報(bao)告(gao)期(qi)(qi)內公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)主(zhu)要通過訂單銷(xiao)售(shou)模(mo)式進行銷(xiao)售(shou);另外(wai)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)新(xin)(xin)上(shang)線了隆(long)(long)(long)商(shang)通訂兌系統,首(shou)期(qi)(qi)進行零售(shou)商(shang)管理(li),庫(ku)存管理(li)等(deng)業務;二期(qi)(qi)將(jiang)完成對賬結算(suan)、數據分析等(deng)功能的(de)(de)(de)開(kai)發;通過信息化技術優(you)化柜臺銷(xiao)售(shou)模(mo)式。公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)業務具(ju)有(you)顯著的(de)(de)(de)競爭(zheng)優(you)勢(shi),新(xin)(xin)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)發力保障公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)業績持續(xu)增(zeng)長。公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)正處于新(xin)(xin)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)厚積(ji)薄(bo)發的(de)(de)(de)階段,市(shi)場競爭(zheng)力不(bu)斷加強(qiang)。隨著新(xin)(xin)《種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)法》對綠色通道制度的(de)(de)(de)明確(que)和(he)銷(xiao)售(shou)模(mo)式升級,公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)新(xin)(xin)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)推(tui)廣(guang)速度將(jiang)加快。

      中(zhong)(zhong)信入主加強公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)外延并購(gou)預(yu)期,轉(zhuan)型農(nong)(nong)服(fu)業(ye)務(wu)整(zheng)(zheng)合產(chan)業(ye)鏈資源。2015年(nian)5月(yue)21日(ri),隆平(ping)高(gao)科公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)告(gao)擬以11.88元(yuan)/股(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)價格向中(zhong)(zhong)信興業(ye)、中(zhong)(zhong)信建(jian)投(tou)(tou)、信農(nong)(nong)投(tou)(tou)資、現代種(zhong)業(ye)基(ji)金(jin)、匯添(tian)富非公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)開發行約2.6億股(gu)(gu),募集資金(jin)30.8億元(yuan)。該(gai)次(ci)定向增(zeng)發于(yu)2016年(nian)1月(yue)19日(ri)完(wan)成(cheng),定增(zeng)完(wan)成(cheng)后(hou),中(zhong)(zhong)信集團合計持有(you)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)18.79%的(de)(de)股(gu)(gu)權,成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)第一大(da)股(gu)(gu)東。1)中(zhong)(zhong)信入主使(shi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)變身為(wei)(wei)國(guo)企(qi)(qi),在(zai)為(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)提供(gong)了資金(jin)實力同時,為(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)帶來資本(ben)運營和跨國(guo)經營的(de)(de)優勢,保障了公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)并購(gou)策(ce)略;2)種(zhong)子企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)國(guo)際(ji)化擴張需(xu)要通過(guo)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)部(bu)的(de)(de)批準,升級國(guo)企(qi)(qi)為(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)國(guo)際(ji)化戰(zhan)略提供(gong)便利條件。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)國(guo)際(ji)計劃(hua)(hua)重(zhong)點(dian)在(zai)菲律賓、巴基(ji)斯坦(tan)、印度(du)(du)等東南亞地(di)區(qu),并將于(yu)2016年(nian)在(zai)印度(du)(du)加入三(san)條科研線(xian)。另外,公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)積極發展農(nong)(nong)服(fu)業(ye)務(wu),學習利馬格蘭(lan)采用具(ju)有(you)排(pai)他性的(de)(de)合作社模式,計劃(hua)(hua)通過(guo)技術服(fu)務(wu)為(wei)(wei)家(jia)(jia)庭農(nong)(nong)場、種(zhong)田大(da)戶(hu)、種(zhong)糧合作社提供(gong)一整(zheng)(zheng)套種(zhong)植解決方案,擬打(da)造包括農(nong)(nong)戶(hu)、經銷(xiao)商(shang)、農(nong)(nong)資、金(jin)融等合作伙伴在(zai)內的(de)(de)生(sheng)態閉環。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)計劃(hua)(hua)農(nong)(nong)服(fu)業(ye)務(wu)由(you)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)服(fu)務(wu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)、土壤(rang)修(xiu)復(fu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)、土地(di)開發公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)三(san)大(da)子公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)共同負(fu)責(ze),而農(nong)(nong)業(ye)服(fu)務(wu)子公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)已于(yu)2015年(nian)7月(yue)29日(ri)正式成(cheng)立(li)(li)。目前農(nong)(nong)服(fu)子公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)業(ye)務(wu)進展順利,16年(nian)計劃(hua)(hua)在(zai)安徽、湖南等成(cheng)立(li)(li)12-13家(jia)(jia)合作社。

      3、投資建(jian)議(yi)

      我(wo)們(men)預(yu)計公司(si)2016-2017年的凈利潤(run)為5.9/7.8億,對應(ying)EPS為0.47/0.62元(攤(tan)薄后),對應(ying)當前股(gu)價(jia)PE為36/27倍。考(kao)慮(lv)到公司(si)作為種(zhong)業行(xing)業龍頭并(bing)(bing)存在并(bing)(bing)購預(yu)期,具有一(yi)定估值溢價(jia),我(wo)們(men)給予公司(si)“推薦”評級。