事件:2013年11月29日,農業部、國家工商行政管理總局召開打擊侵犯品種權和制售假劣種子行為專項(xiang)行動電視電話會議。

    這是(shi)近年來執法力度最(zui)大、覆蓋范圍最(zui)廣、處罰(fa)措施最(zui)為嚴厲的(de)品種侵權和制售(shou)假劣專項整(zheng)理(li)行動。農業部副部長余欣榮對此次整(zheng)治行動提出四點(dian)(dian)要(yao)求(qiu):一(yi)是(shi)嚴查重點(dian)(dian)品種,堅決打掉(diao)套牌侵權種子的(de)“外殼”。

    二是(shi)嚴查(cha)重(zhong)點地區,沒有生產許可證的不得(de)調(diao)出,并嚴肅(su)處理(li)。明年,在播種和收獲前兩個關(guan)鍵時期,進行拉(la)網式檢(jian)查(cha)。三是(shi)嚴查(cha)重(zhong)點企業,對存在制假售假違法行為的,堅決吊銷其生產經營(ying)(ying)許可證和營(ying)(ying)業執照,情節嚴重(zhong)的移(yi)交司法處理(li)。四是(shi)嚴查(cha)大案要案。

    專項(xiang)整治(zhi)行動對(dui)正(zheng)(zheng)牌企業(ye)的優(you)勢(shi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)形成正(zheng)(zheng)面(mian)(mian)利好,套(tao)(tao)(tao)牌種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)生(sheng)存空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)將(jiang)(jiang)被極大(da)擠壓(ya),正(zheng)(zheng)牌品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)將(jiang)(jiang)超預期(qi)。此前,我們(men)在東(dong)北草(cao)根調(diao)研(yan)的過程中(zhong)發現(xian)(xian),先(xian)玉(yu)335正(zheng)(zheng)牌品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)2000多萬畝,但各類套(tao)(tao)(tao)牌先(xian)玉(yu)335品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)達(da)到4000多萬畝,嚴(yan)(yan)重(zhong)擠壓(ya)正(zheng)(zheng)牌品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)。今年(nian)在行業(ye)景氣度(du)較差的情(qing)況(kuang)下,大(da)型企業(ye)紛(fen)(fen)紛(fen)(fen)下降制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji),但各類套(tao)(tao)(tao)牌品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)不降反升,嚴(yan)(yan)重(zhong)影響市場競(jing)爭秩(zhi)序。我們(men)在草(cao)根調(diao)研(yan)中(zhong)了解(jie)到,今年(nian)除先(xian)玉(yu)335以外,登海605、良玉(yu)99、大(da)民(min)3307等品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)套(tao)(tao)(tao)牌品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)也開始出現(xian)(xian)爆發式增長,此次農(nong)業(ye)部(bu)牽頭國家工(gong)商(shang)行政管(guan)理總(zong)局、公安部(bu)打擊套(tao)(tao)(tao)牌將(jiang)(jiang)擠壓(ya)套(tao)(tao)(tao)牌品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)生(sheng)存空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian),正(zheng)(zheng)牌品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)空(kong)(kong)間(jian)(jian)進(jin)一(yi)步打開,優(you)勢(shi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)將(jiang)(jiang)超預期(qi)。

    優勢(shi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)成為最(zui)大受(shou)益者,先(xian)玉335、登(deng)(deng)海605等(deng)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)推廣(guang)面(mian)積(ji)潛力(li)較目前(qian)將至少翻倍(bei)。從先(xian)玉335的推廣(guang)數據看,套牌(pai)(pai)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)在(zai)東北地區將近擠壓了(le)正牌(pai)(pai)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)2倍(bei)以上的生存空(kong)間(jian),我們預估其他區域(yu)性(xing)競爭(zheng)性(xing)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)被擠壓空(kong)間(jian)不(bu)低于1倍(bei),隨(sui)著打擊套牌(pai)(pai)政策落地,正牌(pai)(pai)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)的推廣(guang)空(kong)間(jian)將得(de)到(dao)極大提(ti)升,今年部分優勢(shi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)如(ru)先(xian)玉335、登(deng)(deng)海605、隆平206、農華(hua)101,良玉99等(deng)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)在(zai)行業(ye)整治(zhi)的背景下,推廣(guang)面(mian)積(ji)將有望超出我們此前(qian)模(mo)型假(jia)設預期(qi),行業(ye)競爭(zheng)格局出現好轉。

    種業變革進入最后攻堅期,知識產權保護是變革攻堅的最后一個堡壘。2010年以來種業政策對種子行業的市場化發展已經呈現出積極作用。行業進入門檻提升,國內種子企業已由7900多家下降至5200多家,并購整合推進順利。種業扶持基金成立,龍頭企業加大商業化育種體系建設,登海種業和大北農紛紛投入巨資建立自己的育種研發平臺,隆平、豐樂、神農大豐和荃銀也合資成立高規格的水稻育種平臺。隨著政府對種子知識產權保護力度的提升,大型種子公司育種研(yan)發的投(tou)入將(jiang)(jiang)繼續提(ti)升(sheng),行業正(zheng)在逐(zhu)步進入良性(xing)發展期,行業集中度將(jiang)(jiang)繼續提(ti)升(sheng),龍頭(tou)公司的業績(ji)成長性(xing)將(jiang)(jiang)不斷體現(xian)出(chu)來。

    此(ci)次打擊(ji)套(tao)牌(pai)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)動將(jiang)加速行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業去(qu)庫存(cun),我們預計在高(gao)壓政(zheng)策(ce)下(xia),明(ming)年(nian)(nian)全(quan)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)量將(jiang)出現大(da)幅下(xia)降(jiang),2014/2015推廣季制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業出現景(jing)氣(qi)拐點(dian)及反轉(zhuan)的(de)概(gai)率提升。如我們前(qian)文所述,今年(nian)(nian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)量下(xia)滑低于預期主要(yao)原因在于套(tao)牌(pai)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積不(bu)降(jiang)反升,擾亂行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業競爭(zheng)秩(zhi)序。今年(nian)(nian)政(zheng)府(fu)加大(da)假劣制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)專項整治行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)動,將(jiang)導致大(da)量套(tao)牌(pai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)被(bei)動轉(zhuan)商,對供(gong)給(gei)端形(xing)成利好,而且此(ci)次會議(yi)明(ming)確指出明(ming)年(nian)(nian)播種(zhong)(zhong)和(he)收(shou)獲階段進行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)拉(la)網(wang)式檢查(cha),將(jiang)導致明(ming)年(nian)(nian)套(tao)牌(pai)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)量大(da)幅下(xia)降(jiang),行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業供(gong)過于求格局將(jiang)迎來拐點(dian),行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業景(jing)氣(qi)度回(hui)升成為大(da)概(gai)率事件。

    種業(ye)(ye)投資(zi)策略(lve):明年(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)(nian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)分化加(jia)劇(ju),自下而上(shang)推(tui)薦登海(hai)(hai)(hai)種業(ye)(ye),下半年(nian)(nian)(nian)期待行(xing)業(ye)(ye)反轉,看(kan)好隆(long)平與登海(hai)(hai)(hai)。13/14推(tui)廣(guang)季(ji)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)庫(ku)存處于高位,但優勢品種與普通品種推(tui)廣(guang)分化加(jia)劇(ju),繼(ji)續(xu)看(kan)好登海(hai)(hai)(hai)種業(ye)(ye)品種推(tui)廣(guang)面積(ji)(ji)的高速(su)增(zeng)長帶來(lai)業(ye)(ye)績的確定性增(zeng)長,首推(tui)登海(hai)(hai)(hai)種業(ye)(ye)。明年(nian)(nian)(nian)7-8月份(fen),我們(men)預計行(xing)業(ye)(ye)將(jiang)出(chu)現大(da)(da)量(liang)轉商,制(zhi)種面積(ji)(ji)大(da)(da)幅下滑,14/15推(tui)廣(guang)季(ji)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)景氣(qi)度(du)迎來(lai)拐點反轉,種業(ye)(ye)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)有望迎來(lai)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)性投資(zi)機會(hui),從彈性的角度(du)我們(men)選(xuan)取市值小,業(ye)(ye)績改善(shan)預期空間大(da)(da)的二線龍頭企(qi)業(ye)(ye),從穩(wen)健性角度(du)推(tui)薦登海(hai)(hai)(hai)種業(ye)(ye)和隆(long)平高科。

    首(shou)推(tui)登(deng)海(hai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye):明年(nian)(nian)1季(ji)度(du)之(zhi)前登(deng)海(hai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)仍具有較(jiao)高的安(an)全邊(bian)際,維持(chi)“買入(ru)”,目標價至39.66元(yuan)。(1)行業(ye)扶(fu)持(chi)政策密集發布期,將繼(ji)續提振估(gu)值;(2)公(gong)司優勢(shi)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)繼(ji)續放量,打擊套(tao)牌(pai)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)將利于公(gong)司正牌(pai)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)超預期推(tui)廣。(3)目前公(gong)司預收(shou)款高速(su)增(zeng)長(chang),明年(nian)(nian)上半(ban)年(nian)(nian)的業(ye)績(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)確(que)定性非常高。我們繼(ji)續將登(deng)海(hai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)作為種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)板(ban)塊的首(shou)推(tui)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),按30X2014EPS計算,目標價39.66元(yuan),“買入(ru)”評級。