投資要點

    2012/2013推廣季接近尾聲,從目前雜交玉米種子行業的運行狀況來看,盡管市場擔憂高庫存對終端的價格壓力,但到目前為止,終端價格并未出現下降,超出市場預期,且登海種業依托于多元化的產品布局和各個子公司在(zai)多區域的放量增長,實現了(le)超(chao)預期的穩定增長。本報告我們將對雜交(jiao)玉(yu)米種子行(xing)業(ye)(ye)2013/2014年(nian)的前(qian)景略作展望(wang),并進一步(bu)闡述登海種業(ye)(ye)能夠實現穿越周期、穩定增長的核心優勢(shi)。

    2013年(nian)雜交玉米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)庫存達到(dao)(dao)歷史高(gao)位,我們(men)(men)預計(ji)2013年(nian)全(quan)行業(ye)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面積將(jiang)明(ming)顯(xian)下(xia)降,2013/2014推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)季供(gong)大于求的(de)行業(ye)狀況有望(wang)改善(shan)(shan)。根據(ju)農技中心公(gong)(gong)布的(de)2012/2013推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)季制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)情況,2012年(nian)雜交玉米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)435萬畝,制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)量15.7億公(gong)(gong)斤(jin),可供(gong)種(zhong)量21.2億公(gong)(gong)斤(jin),余種(zhong)量9.7億公(gong)(gong)斤(jin),行業(ye)庫存達到(dao)(dao)歷史高(gao)位水(shui)平(ping)。我們(men)(men)最近了(le)解到(dao)(dao)的(de)情況,部分種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)企業(ye)2013年(nian)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面積將(jiang)減少30%-40%,根據(ju)張掖市(shi)最新的(de)調查數據(ju)顯(xian)示,截止目前全(quan)市(shi)主(zhu)要的(de)三個縣落實生(sheng)產面積84.7萬畝,較(jiao)去年(nian)減少12.7萬畝,我們(men)(men)認(ren)為(wei)2013年(nian)全(quan)行業(ye)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面積將(jiang)明(ming)顯(xian)下(xia)降,2013/2014推(tui)廣(guang)(guang)季庫存逐步呈現高(gao)位下(xia)行趨勢,行業(ye)供(gong)大于求的(de)格局將(jiang)有望(wang)改善(shan)(shan)。

    2012/2013推廣(guang)季(ji)玉米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)未出現顯著下(xia)滑,我(wo)們預計2013/2014推廣(guang)季(ji)龍頭企(qi)(qi)業的(de)優(you)勢品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)將依(yi)然維持(chi)價(jia)格(ge)堅挺(ting)態(tai)勢。截止目前農(nong)技中心公(gong)(gong)布本年度兩期(qi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場(chang)行(xing)(xing)情(qing)調查情(qing)況,3月19日東(dong)華(hua)北(bei)和西北(bei)灌溉區種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)熱(re)銷期(qi)價(jia)格(ge)同比(bi)上漲1%-4%,4月21日各(ge)地種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)價(jia)格(ge)基本與去年持(chi)平,并未出現市(shi)場(chang)預期(qi)的(de)大跌情(qing)形。我(wo)們認為(wei)2013/2014推廣(guang)季(ji)龍頭企(qi)(qi)業的(de)優(you)勢品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)格(ge)將繼續(xu)保持(chi)堅挺(ting)態(tai)勢,主(zhu)要(yao)原因(yin)在于:(1)盡管行(xing)(xing)業庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)高企(qi)(qi),但優(you)勢品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)需求依(yi)然高漲,種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)公(gong)(gong)司對優(you)勢品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有一(yi)定的(de)定價(jia)權(quan);(2)與上一(yi)輪去庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)周期(qi)不同,本輪種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)企(qi)(qi)業庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)基本以(yi)單(dan)粒(li)播品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)主(zhu),只(zhi)要(yao)資金(jin)鏈(lian)可以(yi)支(zhi)撐,不會(hui)出現07/08推廣(guang)季(ji)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)公(gong)(gong)司庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)主(zhu)要(yao)以(yi)多(duo)粒(li)播為(wei)主(zhu),但單(dan)粒(li)播興起,種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)公(gong)(gong)司被迫轉商(shang)或低價(jia)甩庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)的(de)情(qing)形。

    由于制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)下滑,目前種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子企(qi)(qi)業(ye)與制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)農(nong)戶(hu)的議(yi)價能(neng)力地位開始轉換,預計(ji)成(cheng)本繼續(xu)保持(chi)(chi)(chi)去年(nian)水平(ping),種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子利(li)潤率水平(ping)將維(wei)持(chi)(chi)(chi)2012/2013年(nian)水平(ping)。2013年(nian)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)行業(ye)已(yi)經由以往種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子企(qi)(qi)業(ye)求制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)農(nong)戶(hu)落實面積(ji)的“賣(mai)方市(shi)場”轉變(bian)為“買方市(shi)場”,預計(ji)2013年(nian)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)成(cheng)本繼續(xu)維(wei)持(chi)(chi)(chi)2500-2600元/畝的水平(ping),在制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)單產維(wei)持(chi)(chi)(chi)此(ci)前水平(ping),種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子出廠(chang)價不(bu)變(bian)的情(qing)況(kuang)下,我們預計(ji)龍頭(tou)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的利(li)潤率水平(ping)將維(wei)持(chi)(chi)(chi)穩定。

    登海(hai)種業(ye)母公(gong)司(si)(si)的品種儲備(bei)已(yi)形成以登海(hai)605為核(he)心的“1+X”多元化儲備(bei)格局,保證(zheng)公(gong)司(si)(si)業(ye)績穩健增長(chang)。

    (1)目前母公(gong)(gong)司主打品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)605,在(zai)(zai)山東(dong)、河南、蒙西(xi)(xi)、山西(xi)(xi)等(deng)地(di)旺(wang)銷,并(bing)通過浙(zhe)江、陜西(xi)(xi)等(deng)地(di)引種(zhong)(zhong)審(shen)定;(2)其(qi)他品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)如(ru)登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)3、登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)9、登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)11、登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)701、登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)3362、登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)6702等(deng)其(qi)余品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)(zai)山東(dong)局部(bu)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)具備(bei)較強的(de)(de)(de)競爭(zheng)(zheng)力(li);(3)公(gong)(gong)司2012年10月份公(gong)(gong)告的(de)(de)(de)登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)618預計于今年通過山東(dong)審(shen)定,有(you)望成(cheng)為(wei)山東(dong)地(di)區(qu)(qu)又一大品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong);(4)公(gong)(gong)司的(de)(de)(de)登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)15、登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)21等(deng)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)(zai)黑龍江地(di)區(qu)(qu)也(ye)表現出較強的(de)(de)(de)競爭(zheng)(zheng)力(li),有(you)望成(cheng)為(wei)2013/2014推(tui)(tui)廣(guang)季新的(de)(de)(de)利潤增(zeng)長點;(5)公(gong)(gong)司除黃淮海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)地(di)區(qu)(qu)為(wei),正(zheng)積極(ji)(ji)在(zai)(zai)西(xi)(xi)南、東(dong)北區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)培育(yu)新的(de)(de)(de)競爭(zheng)(zheng)力(li)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)。公(gong)(gong)司以登海(hai)(hai)(hai)(hai)605為(wei)核(he)心的(de)(de)(de)“1+X”產品(pin)布局,極(ji)(ji)大豐富了(le)公(gong)(gong)司產品(pin)的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)推(tui)(tui)廣(guang)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu),在(zai)(zai)不同區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)培育(yu)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)競爭(zheng)(zheng)性(xing)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong),是公(gong)(gong)司未來(lai)得以實現穩健(jian)成(cheng)長的(de)(de)(de)核(he)心邏輯(ji)所在(zai)(zai)。

    并購(gou)的(de)(de)其他子(zi)公(gong)司在各(ge)自分析(xi)市場展現出極強(qiang)的(de)(de)競爭(zheng)力。(1)登(deng)(deng)(deng)海(hai)(hai)先(xian)鋒的(de)(de)先(xian)玉335在2012/2013推(tui)廣(guang)季(ji)推(tui)廣(guang)面積繼續(xu)超(chao)預(yu)期增(zeng)長(chang),我(wo)們預(yu)計未來2年推(tui)廣(guang)面積仍(reng)有10%-20%的(de)(de)增(zeng)長(chang)空間;(2)登(deng)(deng)(deng)海(hai)(hai)良(liang)玉的(de)(de)良(liang)玉99在東北地區去(qu)年大田表現卓(zhuo)越,2012/2013推(tui)廣(guang)季(ji)持續(xu)旺銷,且公(gong)司已(yi)經(jing)形成(cheng)了良(liang)玉99、良(liang)玉918、良(liang)玉188、良(liang)玉88的(de)(de)多產品(pin)線;(3)去(qu)年合資成(cheng)立的(de)(de)登(deng)(deng)(deng)海(hai)(hai)福(fu)龍(long)的(de)(de)世賓(bin)606、世賓(bin)607通(tong)過遼寧審(shen)定(ding),我(wo)們預(yu)計登(deng)(deng)(deng)海(hai)(hai)福(fu)龍(long)2013年業績將實現較快(kuai)的(de)(de)利潤增(zeng)長(chang),成(cheng)為繼登(deng)(deng)(deng)海(hai)(hai)先(xian)鋒、登(deng)(deng)(deng)海(hai)(hai)良(liang)玉之后新的(de)(de)利潤增(zeng)長(chang)點。

    母公司營銷體系改革初(chu)現(xian)成(cheng)(cheng)效,輔之(zhi)于公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)優秀的(de)(de)育種(zhong)(zhong)研發(fa)(fa)能(neng)力,是公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)在(zai)庫存高企,行(xing)業景(jing)氣(qi)度下行(xing)態勢下能(neng)夠(gou)實(shi)現(xian)穩(wen)健(jian)增長的(de)(de)核心所在(zai)。(1)在(zai)行(xing)業景(jing)氣(qi)度下行(xing)的(de)(de)情況(kuang)下,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)營銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)技術服務人員主動(dong)幫助經銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)商(shang)開展(zhan)多(duo)種(zhong)(zhong)形式(shi)、多(duo)頻(pin)次的(de)(de)技術服務和(he)營銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)活動(dong),并適(shi)度提(ti)(ti)(ti)升經銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)商(shang)返利空(kong)間,提(ti)(ti)(ti)升經銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)商(shang)積極性,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)2012年(nian)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)費用(yong)率(lv)較(jiao)2011年(nian)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升1.79個百分點,我們(men)認為適(shi)度提(ti)(ti)(ti)升銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)費用(yong)率(lv)有助于行(xing)業弱(ruo)勢下,提(ti)(ti)(ti)升公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)市場占(zhan)有率(lv);(2)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)合資成(cheng)(cheng)立的(de)(de)登(deng)(deng)海五岳和(he)登(deng)(deng)海道吉等子公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)在(zai)部分區(qu)域具備渠道優勢,依(yi)托母(mu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)較(jiao)強的(de)(de)育種(zhong)(zhong)研發(fa)(fa)實(shi)力,母(mu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)可以注入(ru)一些區(qu)域性競爭品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong),幫助母(mu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)將適(shi)宜的(de)(de)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)廣到最適(shi)宜種(zhong)(zhong)植的(de)(de)地區(qu),提(ti)(ti)(ti)升母(mu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)區(qu)域滲(shen)透率(lv)。

    上調評級(ji)至“買入(ru)”。維持(chi)2013-2015年(nian)EPS0.95/1.18/1.39元(yuan)不變,在模型中(zhong)我(wo)們假設2013年(nian)種子價格下(xia)(xia)滑2%,成(cheng)本(ben)上升2%,如若2013/2014推廣(guang)季制(zhi)種面積下(xia)(xia)降,供需格局(ju)改善(shan),或公(gong)司(si)(si)優勢(shi)品(pin)種價格表現超(chao)出我(wo)們預期,公(gong)司(si)(si)EPS仍有進一步上修空(kong)間(jian),我(wo)們給予公(gong)司(si)(si)30X2013PE,目標價28.5元(yuan),鑒于公(gong)司(si)(si)在行業下(xia)(xia)行周期中(zhong),母公(gong)司(si)(si)和各子公(gong)司(si)(si)產品(pin)紛紛發力,保證公(gong)司(si)(si)實現穿越周期的(de)穩(wen)定增長,我(wo)們將公(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)評級(ji)由“增持(chi)”上調至“買入(ru)”。