投資要點

    登海先玉335繼續保持較好的增長勢頭，預期登海先鋒今年可以每股貢獻收益0.303元。登海先鋒11/12銷售季仍將維持10/11銷售季的的營銷策略，其中65%銷售收入實現在11年度，35%的銷售收入實現在12年度。先玉335存在理論上的市場容量限制，但從市場熱銷情況來看，未來仍可保持良好的增長，公司在張掖新建了一座現代化的種子加工廠，預計到2012年8月達產，可形成2.6萬噸玉米種子生(sheng)產(chan)加(jia)工(gong)能力(li)，與登海先鋒在(zai)酒泉(quan)的(de)生(sheng)產(chan)加(jia)工(gong)基地(di)只有(you)200公(gong)里的(de)距(ju)離，未來可以滿足先玉335的(de)加(jia)工(gong)需要。先玉335先玉今年的(de)制種面積在(zai)7-8萬畝左右(you)，假(jia)設11/12年銷售季銷售規模(mo)2300萬公(gong)斤，同時(shi)65%的(de)銷售收入在(zai)11年四(si)季度實(shi)現，則(ze)歸屬母公(gong)司的(de)收入為(wei)21348萬元(yuan)，凈利(li)潤為(wei)10674萬元(yuan)，貢(gong)獻每(mei)股(gu)收益0.303元(yuan)。

    登(deng)(deng)海(hai)605上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，目前(qian)四(si)(si)季(ji)度(du)(du)預售(shou)(shou)情況(kuang)良(liang)好，11/12年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)計(ji)劃推廣1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)。2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)登(deng)(deng)海(hai)先鋒(feng)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)實現凈利(li)潤(run)5316萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)，則(ze)歸屬(shu)母公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)凈利(li)潤(run)為(wei)(wei)4052萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)，按(an)照40%的(de)(de)凈利(li)潤(run)水平測算，則(ze)母公(gong)(gong)司(si)實現10130萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)收入，按(an)照20元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，可以推算上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)母公(gong)(gong)司(si)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)規模在(zai)(zai)506萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)報庫存商品(pin)和在(zai)(zai)產品(pin)14232萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)，較2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)8726萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)增加63%，其中(zhong)(zhong)計(ji)提(ti)(ti)了(le)跌(die)價準備計(ji)提(ti)(ti)785萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)。登(deng)(deng)海(hai)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)制種(zhong)(zhong)規模在(zai)(zai)5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，制種(zhong)(zhong)量在(zai)(zai)1500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，其中(zhong)(zhong)登(deng)(deng)海(hai)605在(zai)(zai)1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)左右，今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)制種(zhong)(zhong)規模在(zai)(zai)6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)左右，制種(zhong)(zhong)量大(da)概在(zai)(zai)2100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，其中(zhong)(zhong)登(deng)(deng)海(hai)605在(zai)(zai)1500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)左右。我們認為(wei)(wei)11/12年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)季(ji)公(gong)(gong)司(si)擁有2000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)的(de)(de)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量，公(gong)(gong)司(si)規劃完成1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，1500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)的(de)(de)規模，公(gong)(gong)司(si)進一步(bu)加大(da)對(dui)經銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)商的(de)(de)返利(li)幅度(du)(du)，加之上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)登(deng)(deng)海(hai)605大(da)田表現良(liang)好，目前(qian)來(lai)看(kan)四(si)(si)季(ji)度(du)(du)預售(shou)(shou)情況(kuang)良(liang)好，但是(shi)從11年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)規模來(lai)看(kan)，1500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)仍然是(shi)一個相對(dui)較為(wei)(wei)艱巨的(de)(de)任務。

    公司是研發能力最強的“育繁推”一體化企業，2011 年 10 月8日，分別由公司及控股子公司自主研發的“登海 6702”和“良玉 208”在第二屆國家農作物品種審定委員會第五次會議上獲得通過，在此之前公司通過國審的品種有登(deng)海 11 號，登(deng)海 9 號和登(deng)海 662。我(wo)們(men)預期(qi)，這兩個品種將(jiang)會在(zai) 11/12銷售季開始小范圍推廣，在(zai)形(xing)成市(shi)場認可度之后，再(zai)逐步放量，預期(qi)明(ming)年開始貢獻業績(ji)。

    作(zuo)為(wei)玉(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)龍(long)頭企(qi)業(ye)(ye)，將(jiang)在十二(er)五期間受(shou)益于行業(ye)(ye)扶(fu)持(chi)政策。8月25日，農(nong)業(ye)(ye)部公(gong)(gong)布《農(nong)作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子生(sheng)產(chan)經(jing)營(ying)許(xu)(xu)可管(guan)理辦法(fa)》提(ti)高(gao)種(zhong)(zhong)子行業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)經(jing)營(ying)許(xu)(xu)可的(de)條(tiao)件，從2012年開(kai)始分(fen)批完(wan)成相(xiang)關(guan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)審核(he)和退(tui)出工作(zuo)，我們(men)預(yu)(yu)期公(gong)(gong)司(si)作(zuo)為(wei)龍(long)頭企(qi)業(ye)(ye)面臨(lin)著其(qi)他公(gong)(gong)司(si)退(tui)出帶來的(de)兼并(bing)機遇。《國務院(yuan)關(guan)于加快推(tui)進現代(dai)農(nong)作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展的(de)意見》進一步加強(qiang)對“育(yu)繁推(tui)”一體化(hua)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)的(de)扶(fu)持(chi)力度(du)，并(bing)且明確(que)了企(qi)業(ye)(ye)是(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展的(de)主體，提(ti)出要引導(dao)和積極(ji)推(tui)進科研院(yuan)所(suo)和高(gao)等(deng)院(yuan)校逐步退(tui)出商業(ye)(ye)化(hua)育(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)，不再參加種(zhong)(zhong)子評審工作(zuo)，我們(men)預(yu)(yu)期種(zhong)(zhong)源(yuan)將(jiang)主要集中在重點(dian)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)手中，種(zhong)(zhong)子公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)議價能力將(jiang)得(de)到大幅提(ti)升(sheng)，2012-2015年雜交玉(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子價格有望保持(chi)10%年增速，在雜交玉(yu)米(mi)維持(chi)4.9億畝(mu)種(zhong)(zhong)植面積，畝(mu)均用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)量2.2公(gong)(gong)斤，種(zhong)(zhong)子商品化(hua)率(lv)近100%的(de)前(qian)提(ti)下，預(yu)(yu)期2015年雜交玉(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子市場容量將(jiang)達到370億元。

    投資建議及評級

    公(gong)司四(si)季度預售(shou)(shou)回款情況好(hao)(hao)于(yu)預期(qi)，同時公(gong)司三季報對全年(nian)業績預測增長(chang)幅度為0%-30%，并解釋業績變(bian)動(dong)原(yuan)因是“玉米(mi)種子(zi)銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)與上年(nian)同期(qi)持(chi)平(ping)或略好(hao)(hao)于(yu)上年(nian)同期(qi)”。綜上分析(xi)，在登(deng)海(hai)先(xian)鋒業務繼續保持(chi)穩定(ding)增長(chang)，在登(deng)海(hai)60511/12年(nian)能(neng)夠基本(ben)完成1000萬(wan)畝、1500萬(wan)公(gong)斤的(de)推廣銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)計劃的(de)情況下，我們預測公(gong)司2011年(nian)-2013年(nian)的(de)每股收益為0.75、1.05、1.24元，給予(yu)推薦評級。(本(ben)文來源：華泰證券 )