小編說說

      春耕備耕，種子準備的怎(zen)么樣了，日(ri)前，2015年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國(guo)主要(yao)(yao)農作物(wu)種子產供需形勢分析發布，今年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國(guo)春夏(xia)播主要(yao)(yao)農作物(wu)種子市(shi)場總體(ti)特征是需種結(jie)構呈現“兩(liang)增兩(liang)平(ping)兩(liang)減(jian)”，市(shi)場種子供給充裕(yu)、質(zhi)量水平(ping)提高(gao)，種子價格總體(ti)與去年(nian)(nian)持平(ping)，市(shi)場競爭激烈(lie)，銷售和服(fu)務模式加速變革(ge)。

      日(ri)前(qian)，全國農技中心在(zai)吉林省(sheng)長春市(shi)召(zhao)開2015年(nian)全國主(zhu)要(yao)農作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)子產供需(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)分(fen)析春季例(li)會。會議(yi)分(fen)析了(le)今年(nian)種(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)場運行動態(tai)，調度了(le)春夏(xia)播作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)子生產意向和當前(qian)秋冬種(zhong)(zhong)作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)田間長勢(shi)，會商(shang)了(le)2015年(nian)主(zhu)要(yao)農作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)種(zhong)(zhong)子產供需(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)，并對有關工作(zuo)(zuo)進行了(le)安排部署(shu)。

      一、春夏播作物種子市場運行態勢

      今年全國春夏播主要(yao)農作(zuo)物(wu)種子(zi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)總體特征是需種結構呈現“兩(liang)增(zeng)兩(liang)平(ping)(ping)(ping)兩(liang)減(jian)”，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)種子(zi)供給充裕(yu)、質(zhi)量水平(ping)(ping)(ping)提高，種子(zi)價(jia)格總體與去年持平(ping)(ping)(ping)，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)競爭激(ji)烈，銷售和服務模式(shi)加速(su)變革。

      （一）需種結構呈現“兩增兩平兩減”態勢。根據預測調度，在“轉方式、調結構”的大背景和市場需求的引導下，全國春夏播主要農作物用種面積呈現以下特點：玉米和常規稻用種面積將有所增長，大豆和馬鈴薯用種面積將基本穩定，雜交稻和棉花用種(zhong)面積將下滑。預計(ji)春夏播(bo)各作物商品(pin)種(zhong)子(zi)需求(qiu)總(zong)量分別(bie)為：雜交玉米種(zhong)子(zi)12億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)左右，雜交稻種(zhong)子(zi)2.1億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，雜交棉種(zhong)子(zi)630萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、常(chang)規棉商品(pin)種(zhong)子(zi)0.95億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、常(chang)規稻商品(pin)種(zhong)子(zi)7億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、大(da)豆商品(pin)種(zhong)子(zi)3億(yi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。

      （二）主要農作物種子質優量足。根據各地調度的情況，各作物種子供給量充足，完全能滿足春夏播農業生產用種需求，兩雜種子總體依然過剩嚴重。今年全國春夏播各主要農作物商品種子總供給量分別為：玉米種子20億公斤，雜交水稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)3.37億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，常規稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)8.3億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，大豆種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)4.9億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，雜交棉(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)700萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，常規棉(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)1.4億公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，總量和絕(jue)大多數品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)供給量均超過需求量。預計春夏播結束(shu)后，玉(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)期末庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)量將回(hui)落(luo)到庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)警戒(jie)線(xian)上線(xian)附(fu)近，但雜交水稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)期末庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)量仍將比庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)警戒(jie)線(xian)高出10%。

      （三）價(jia)(jia)格平穩(wen)(wen)(wen)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)更(geng)新(xin)速度加(jia)快(kuai)。總體看，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)(chang)價(jia)(jia)格基(ji)本與去年(nian)(nian)(nian)持平，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)格在(zai)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)間、品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)間加(jia)劇分化(hua)，華南、西南地區(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)格穩(wen)(wen)(wen)中有(you)升，西北、東華北、東南地區(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)格基(ji)本持平，長江中下游、黃淮海地區(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子價(jia)(jia)格穩(wen)(wen)(wen)中有(you)降。今年(nian)(nian)(nian)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)突出(chu)的(de)(de)特點，一是(shi)新(xin)審定(ding)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)定(ding)價(jia)(jia)較(jiao)高，一上市(shi)就在(zai)適(shi)宜(yi)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)大面(mian)積鋪開；二(er)是(shi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)質優良的(de)(de)水稻(dao)(dao)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、適(shi)宜(yi)機收(shou)籽粒的(de)(de)玉(yu)米(mi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、專門用途(tu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)以及(ji)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)表現優秀的(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)(jia)格上揚，受到農民的(de)(de)青睞；三是(shi)前(qian)幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)主導品(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在(zai)大部分地區(qu)出(chu)現不同程度的(de)(de)下滑。目前(qian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子全國零售價(jia)(jia)水平如下：雜(za)交(jiao)玉(yu)米(mi)24.7元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤，雜(za)交(jiao)水稻(dao)(dao)63.83元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤，常規(gui)稻(dao)(dao)6.63元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤、大豆8.50元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤，雜(za)交(jiao)棉237.56元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤、常規(gui)棉30.3元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤。

      （四）種子營銷服務(wu)模式(shi)加(jia)(jia)速變(bian)革。近年傳統逐級(ji)代理銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)和門市店(dian)“坐銷(xiao)(xiao)”營銷(xiao)(xiao)模式(shi)正在(zai)發生變(bian)革，企(qi)(qi)業加(jia)(jia)大(da)了銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)與模式(shi)創新力度。新涌現的(de)代表(biao)性(xing)方式(shi)有四類：一是看禾“預定式(shi)”銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)。許多(duo)企(qi)(qi)業精心設立品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)種(zhong)(zhong)植樣板田，組織農(nong)民(min)到種(zhong)(zhong)植田現場觀摩，與農(nong)戶(hu)洽談簽訂(ding)預售(shou)合(he)同(tong)。二(er)是產品(pin)“訂(ding)單(dan)式(shi)”銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)。擁有品(pin)質優(you)良品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)的(de)企(qi)(qi)業直接(jie)與種(zhong)(zhong)植大(da)戶(hu)對接(jie)，通過農(nong)產品(pin)回收(shou)來擴大(da)種(zhong)(zhong)子銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)。三是可視媒體(ti)(ti)(ti)“炮(pao)轟式(shi)”銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)。一些企(qi)(qi)業與電(dian)視臺等媒體(ti)(ti)(ti)單(dan)位合(he)作，在(zai)最(zui)佳時段密集(ji)播放品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)展(zhan)示與服務(wu)廣告，博得(de)農(nong)民(min)認同(tong)進行種(zhong)(zhong)子直銷(xiao)(xiao)。四是電(dian)商實體(ti)(ti)(ti)店(dian)“融合(he)式(shi)”銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)。企(qi)(qi)業充分利用網(wang)絡、可追(zhui)溯管(guan)理向(xiang)種(zhong)(zhong)植戶(hu)提供(gong)全程解(jie)決方案(an)，變(bian)實體(ti)(ti)(ti)店(dian)為體(ti)(ti)(ti)驗店(dian)和服務(wu)站。這些新型銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)模式(shi)的(de)共同(tong)特點是強化售(shou)后服務(wu)、減少(shao)流通環節，讓利給種(zhong)(zhong)植戶(hu)，因(yin)此(ci)受到了千家萬戶(hu)的(de)歡迎，在(zai)全國呈“星火燎原”之勢。

      二、主要農作物種子制繁種形勢

      會議調度(du)了全國各地(di)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)企業(ye)制(zhi)種(zhong)意向(xiang)和種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)(sheng)產基地(di)動向(xiang)，總體(ti)(ti)來看，今(jin)年(nian)“兩雜”種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)(sheng)產布局進(jin)一(yi)步優化，春季制(zhi)種(zhong)企業(ye)總體(ti)(ti)趨于理性，主要(yao)基地(di)生(sheng)(sheng)產秩(zhi)序(xu)明顯(xian)好(hao)轉，但部分企業(ye)仍(reng)盲目沖動，兩雜種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)(sheng)產過(guo)剩壓力依然較大(da)。

      （一(yi)）玉米(mi)制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)計(ji)劃擴增(zeng)。本次(ci)會商統計(ji)，今年全國雜交玉米(mi)計(ji)劃制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)342萬畝，比去年實際制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)294萬畝增(zeng)加48萬畝，增(zeng)長16%。并(bing)呈現兩大特點：一(yi)是(shi)進一(yi)步向主產區(qu)集中。甘肅、新疆面(mian)積(ji)擴大，其他(ta)區(qu)域調減(jian)(jian)。二是(shi)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構不斷(duan)優化。新審定品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和市場暢銷品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)調增(zeng)，老大路品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)明(ming)顯減(jian)(jian)少。按(an)此規模落(luo)實，新產種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子就能滿足明(ming)年大田用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，但(dan)行(xing)業難于繼續(xu)緩(huan)解庫存壓(ya)力(li)。

      （二(er)）雜(za)交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)計(ji)劃制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)持(chi)(chi)平(ping)。全國雜(za)交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)計(ji)劃面(mian)積(ji)(ji)約140萬畝(mu)(mu)，與去年實際制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)持(chi)(chi)平(ping)，當前雜(za)交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市(shi)場銷售進度(du)緩慢，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)企業(ye)觀望(wang)氣氛濃重(zhong)，計(ji)劃制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)預期將(jiang)有(you)所調整。突出特點：一(yi)是江蘇基地(di)兩系(xi)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)基地(di)大(da)轉移。江蘇省制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)基地(di)今(jin)年制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)銳減，可(ke)能由(you)去年的19萬畝(mu)(mu)降至10-12萬畝(mu)(mu)，兩系(xi)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)生產向福建、廣西等地(di)轉移。二(er)是三系(xi)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)主產區制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)下降。四川省制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)(ji)由(you)去年29.3萬畝(mu)(mu)調減到今(jin)年的24.8萬畝(mu)(mu)。如天氣基本正(zheng)常，新(xin)產種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)將(jiang)超出大(da)田需求3000萬公斤，將(jiang)導致(zhi)雜(za)交(jiao)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)供給過(guo)剩的壓力進一(yi)步加(jia)大(da)。

      （三）其他(ta)作物種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子生產(chan)總(zong)體平穩。雜交棉(mian)計(ji)劃制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大幅(fu)調減(jian)至(zhi)5萬畝(mu)，常(chang)規棉(mian)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)調減(jian)至(zhi)100萬畝(mu)，比(bi)去(qu)年制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積減(jian)少20%以上。常(chang)規稻計(ji)劃制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)調增至(zhi)186萬畝(mu)，大豆計(ji)劃制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)調減(jian)至(zhi)288萬畝(mu)，以此規模計(ji)算(suan)，即使有中等(deng)規模災害(hai)，當年產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)也能(neng)滿足明(ming)年大田用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)要。

      （四）秋冬種作物種子生產基礎良好。全國冬小麥落實制種面積1217萬畝，冬油菜落實制種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積14萬畝。據各制種(zhong)(zhong)省區反(fan)映，冬(dong)小麥和冬(dong)油菜(cai)制種(zhong)(zhong)田前(qian)期(qi)長勢良好，已經奠定了(le)豐收的(de)基礎(chu)，如果(guo)后期(qi)不發生重大災害(hai)，預(yu)計冬(dong)小麥產種(zhong)(zhong)50億公(gong)斤左右(you)，冬(dong)油菜(cai)產種(zhong)(zhong)1200萬公(gong)斤左右(you)，新產種(zhong)(zhong)子能夠確保(bao)今年秋冬(dong)種(zhong)(zhong)供種(zhong)(zhong)安全(quan)。

      三、下一步工作要求與近期的工作重點

      由于今年(nian)種(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)場(chang)啟動較(jiao)晚(wan)，種(zhong)子(zi)市(shi)場(chang)和種(zhong)子(zi)生產形勢復(fu)雜，不確定因素較(jiao)多，會議要求各地進一步加大工作(zuo)力度，近期(qi)重(zhong)點(dian)做(zuo)好以下工作(zuo)。

      （一(yi)）深入掌握種子(zi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場運行動態。當前新(xin)的種子(zi)“直銷”模(mo)式(shi)花(hua)樣越來越多(duo)，有(you)些零(ling)售門市(shi)(shi)(shi)店已不再經營，或者(zhe)轉變(bian)(bian)為種子(zi)“體驗店”、“供貨點”，這要求(qiu)常規(gui)種子(zi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場監測方法和(he)方式(shi)應(ying)勢(shi)而變(bian)(bian)。各地要結合市(shi)(shi)(shi)場實際，及時調整種子(zi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場監測點，擴大調度渠道和(he)范圍(wei)，按照(zhao)種子(zi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場監測有(you)關要求(qiu)，全(quan)面深入調查真實反映市(shi)(shi)(shi)場運行變(bian)(bian)化情(qing)況。

      （二）密切關注種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)田作物(wu)長勢情(qing)況。近幾年自然災害(hai)頻(pin)繁發生(sheng)，重(zhong)大(da)(da)病蟲害(hai)侵擾(rao)不斷，造成(cheng)部分(fen)作物(wu)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)減產(chan)(chan)、質量下降、生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)成(cheng)本(ben)提高(gao)等，給農業(ye)用種(zhong)安全帶(dai)來隱患(huan)。各地(di)要根據氣象(xiang)和(he)(he)植保部門預報，加大(da)(da)冬小(xiao)麥和(he)(he)冬油菜制(zhi)種(zhong)田的監(jian)測(ce)力度(du)和(he)(he)頻(pin)度(du)，實時跟蹤田間作物(wu)長勢，有效預防和(he)(he)應對異常氣候(hou)、重(zhong)大(da)(da)病蟲給制(zhi)種(zhong)帶(dai)來的嚴重(zhong)危(wei)害(hai)，若遇到重(zhong)大(da)(da)情(qing)況要及時上報全國農技中心(xin)。

      （三(san)）合理引導企業(ye)開展種(zhong)子生(sheng)產。今(jin)年種(zhong)子市(shi)場(chang)供大于求的矛盾依然突出，特別是(shi)雜交稻種(zhong)子，倘若(ruo)計劃制種(zhong)面(mian)積如數落實，可(ke)能會進一步加劇行業(ye)庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)。各地要(yao)迅速將本次會商情況向有關企業(ye)通報，引導企業(ye)調(diao)整(zheng)制種(zhong)面(mian)積，優化生(sheng)產品種(zhong)結構，削減市(shi)場(chang)需求較小的積壓庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)量，避(bi)免“種(zhong)子嚴重過剩(sheng)”給(gei)整(zheng)個(ge)行業(ye)帶(dai)來傷害。

      （四(si)）切實加大(da)(da)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)管理(li)。2014年甘肅省(sheng)采取多(duo)種(zhong)措施(shi)加大(da)(da)基(ji)地管理(li)，張掖(ye)市建立企(qi)業(ye)黑名單制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度(du)和領(ling)導(dao)問責(ze)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)得(de)到有效規范。各地要(yao)學習借鑒甘肅省(sheng)加大(da)(da)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)基(ji)地管理(li)的先進經驗與做法，嚴(yan)格落實種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)許可制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度(du)，規范和約束企(qi)業(ye)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)行為，強化種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)監管責(ze)任制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，科學引導(dao)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)健康發展。特(te)別是新疆等玉米種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)主產(chan)(chan)區要(yao)加大(da)(da)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)基(ji)地巡(xun)查和打擊力度(du)，防(fang)止(zhi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)私繁濫制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)向本(ben)區域轉移。