據每日經濟新聞消息近期有調研登海種業的行業分析師透露，從今年9月份看登海種業的預售款同比增長30%以上的業績，足以看出玉米行業(ye)龍頭登海種業(ye)有(you)望拉動2015年(nian)產品的量價齊升。

      登海種業的良好表現或許僅僅是行業中的一個縮影，在種子行業正在發生變革的當前，新種子法已經形成征求意見稿，除改善市場競爭環境的訴求外，行業庫存拐點即將顯現。以龍頭公司為代(dai)表(biao)的年(nian)末種子行業(ye)(ye)行情即將爆發。據(ju)媒體報道，全國(guo)人大農業(ye)(ye)與農村委(wei)(wei)員會(hui)表(biao)示，《種子法》修(xiu)訂案已經(jing)形成征求(qiu)意見(jian)稿，有望(wang)于明年(nian)4月上報全國(guo)人大常委(wei)(wei)會(hui)審議(yi)通過。

      據(ju)了(le)解，新種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法(fa)修訂主要(yao)(yao)涉及種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)質資源(yuan)(yuan)保(bao)護不(bu)(bu)力(li)(li)，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)完(wan)善(shan)(shan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)質資源(yuan)(yuan)保(bao)護和利用等管(guan)理制(zhi)度(du)；育種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)科(ke)研體制(zhi)機制(zhi)不(bu)(bu)適應(ying)現代(dai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)發展要(yao)(yao)求，亟需(xu)構(gou)建(jian)適應(ying)現代(dai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)發展要(yao)(yao)求的(de)新的(de)育種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)科(ke)研體制(zhi)機制(zhi)；品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)管(guan)理制(zhi)度(du)需(xu)完(wan)善(shan)(shan)和規范(fan)；植(zhi)物新品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)保(bao)護力(li)(li)度(du)不(bu)(bu)夠，假冒侵權現象嚴重，亟需(xu)加大保(bao)護和處罰力(li)(li)度(du)；種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子生產經(jing)營管(guan)理環(huan)節多，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)簡(jian)化管(guan)理環(huan)節；種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)行業(ye)集中度(du)低，整體競爭能力(li)(li)弱，國外資本進入(ru)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)構(gou)成的(de)潛在危險不(bu)(bu)容忽視；對種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子執法(fa)監(jian)管(guan)體制(zhi)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)進一步完(wan)善(shan)(shan)；對種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)的(de)支持和扶持力(li)(li)度(du)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)加強等八(ba)個方面。

      有(you)(you)專(zhuan)家指出，當前(qian)國內育種(zhong)領(ling)域普遍存缺乏原創(chuang)技術，不少(shao)所(suo)謂(wei)的(de)新品種(zhong)都避(bi)免不了“克隆”影子(zi)，正因(yin)(yin)為(wei)缺乏品種(zhong)知識產權保護，低價同質化使得經銷(xiao)商賣不出正品的(de)高價種(zhong)子(zi)。比如今(jin)年6月份的(de)先玉335爆出經銷(xiao)商退(tui)貨現(xian)象(xiang)，除了有(you)(you)企業(ye)(ye)前(qian)期向(xiang)經銷(xiao)鋪貨激進外，市場中套牌種(zhong)子(zi)的(de)大(da)量(liang)存在(zai)，也是本(ben)次(ci)退(tui)貨的(de)其中一個因(yin)(yin)素(su)。因(yin)(yin)此(ci)新《種(zhong)子(zi)法(fa)》有(you)(you)望(wang)凈化行業(ye)(ye)的(de)不良環境，其保護的(de)力度有(you)(you)望(wang)超預期，構成對種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)龍頭公(gong)司(si)的(de)長(chang)期發展利好。

      除政策因素外(wai)，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)業的(de)周(zhou)期性和經過2年(nian)(nian)(nian)多行(xing)(xing)業去庫存化后，當(dang)前兩(liang)雜(za)(za)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)的(de)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)有(you)望出現向下拐點，是種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)行(xing)(xing)業迎來(lai)的(de)最直接(jie)利好。從(cong)雜(za)(za)交(jiao)玉米種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)情(qing)(qing)況看，2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)國內雜(za)(za)交(jiao)玉米種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)295萬畝，同(tong)(tong)比下降23%，為近年(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai)下滑(hua)幅度(du)最大的(de)一年(nian)(nian)(nian)，除了隆平高科等(deng)少量企(qi)業外(wai)，絕大部分企(qi)業都顯著下調了制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)。同(tong)(tong)時，西北制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)基地災(zai)情(qing)(qing)導致(zhi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)單產同(tong)(tong)比下降7%。目前，2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)雜(za)(za)交(jiao)玉米制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)已(yi)下降至合(he)理(li)水平，預(yu)計行(xing)(xing)業供過于求的(de)局面(mian)(mian)整體將(jiang)有(you)效(xiao)緩(huan)解。同(tong)(tong)樣，自2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)以來(lai)連續2年(nian)(nian)(nian)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)格下跌的(de)趨勢也(ye)將(jiang)止住，預(yu)計2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)各主要品種(zhong)銷售價(jia)格將(jiang)有(you)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)程度(du)的(de)回升。（來(lai)源：甘肅農民報）