截止5月8日，據各地上報統計，全省主要夏播農作物預計需商品種量為1206.34萬公斤，超過上年實際供種197.17萬公斤；目前已備商品種1416.11萬公斤（包括上游企業計劃供應省內的在庫種子），比上年(nian)實際備(bei)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)增加94.44萬公斤，表明今年(nian)我省夏播(bo)糧食作物(wu)備(bei)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)相當(dang)(dang)充足(zu)；各(ge)地已供(gong)商品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)602.07萬公斤，為預計需種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量的49.91%，與上年(nian)同期(qi)供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)進度相當(dang)(dang)。

      一(yi)、分(fen)作物供需情(qing)況(kuang)

      1、晚稻預計(ji)需商(shang)品種(zhong)量為1140.49萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤（其中：常規稻807.24萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，雜(za)(za)交(jiao)稻333.25萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤）；已備商(shang)品種(zhong)1335.08萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤（其中：常規稻933.00萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，雜(za)(za)交(jiao)稻402.08萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤），超(chao)(chao)過預計(ji)需商(shang)品種(zhong)量194.59萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤（其中：常規稻超(chao)(chao)過125.76萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，雜(za)(za)交(jiao)稻超(chao)(chao)過68.83萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤）；已供種(zhong)563.74萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤（其中：常規稻323.82萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，雜(za)(za)交(jiao)稻239.92萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤），為市場(chang)預計(ji)需商(shang)品種(zhong)量的49.43%。

      2、夏播玉米預(yu)計(ji)需商品種量(liang)(liang)為65.85萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)（其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)：普(pu)通(tong)(tong)玉米40.18萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，鮮(xian)食(shi)(shi)玉米25.67萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)）；已備商品種子81.03萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)（其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)：普(pu)通(tong)(tong)玉米45.65萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，鮮(xian)食(shi)(shi)玉米35.38萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)），超過(guo)預(yu)計(ji)需商品種量(liang)(liang)15.18萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)（其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)：普(pu)通(tong)(tong)玉米超過(guo)5.47萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，鮮(xian)食(shi)(shi)玉米超過(guo)9.71萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)）；已供(gong)種38.33萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)（其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)：普(pu)通(tong)(tong)玉米23.38萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)， 鮮(xian)食(shi)(shi)玉米14.95萬(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)），為市(shi)場預(yu)計(ji)需種量(liang)(liang)的(de)58.21%。

      二(er)、供需分析

      與上年供(gong)需情況相比(bi)，晚(wan)稻預(yu)計需種(zhong)量比(bi)上年實際供(gong)種(zhong)量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)了185.61萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)（其中：常(chang)規(gui)稻增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)155.71萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，雜交稻增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)29.90萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)），夏播(bo)玉(yu)米(mi)預(yu)計需種(zhong)量比(bi)上年實際供(gong)種(zhong)量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)了11.56萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)（其中：普通玉(yu)米(mi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)10.48萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，鮮食玉(yu)米(mi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)1.08萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)）。與上年備種(zhong)量比(bi)較，晚(wan)稻備種(zhong)量比(bi)上年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)了95.11萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)（其中常(chang)規(gui)稻增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)87.26萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，雜交稻增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)7.85萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)），增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅為7.67%；玉(yu)米(mi)備種(zhong)量比(bi)上年減(jian)少0.67萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)（其中普通玉(yu)米(mi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)6.32萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)，鮮食玉(yu)米(mi)減(jian)少6.99萬公(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)），減(jian)幅達(da)0.82%。

      從今(jin)年(nian)夏播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)供需總(zong)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)析，可供商品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)相當寬裕，但區(qu)域性(xing)和結構(gou)性(xing)缺(que)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)情況依然(ran)存在(zai)，表現為(wei)：臺州市和湖州市分(fen)(fen)別(bie)缺(que)常規晚(wan)稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)3.20萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、2.34萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，寧波市缺(que)雜交晚(wan)稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)4.80萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)（主要是甬優(you)系列(lie)和中浙優(you)系列(lie)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)）。我省(sheng)晚(wan)稻的(de)省(sheng)、市、縣三級(ji)儲(chu)備種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)充足，僅(jin)省(sheng)級(ji)風(feng)險種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)儲(chu)備就有69.5萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)，可隨時(shi)申請動用(yong)儲(chu)備種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)以滿足市場需求。其中，甬優(you)9號、中浙優(you)8號和中浙優(you)1號的(de)省(sheng)級(ji)風(feng)險種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)儲(chu)備數量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)8萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、9萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)和5萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)；寧波市雜交晚(wan)稻甬優(you)9號、甬優(you)12的(de)儲(chu)備種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)數量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)3.80萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)、3.00萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)。截止(zhi)5月8日，尚(shang)未有單位(wei)申請動用(yong)儲(chu)備種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)管理(li)機構(gou)應加強管理(li)，盡早(zao)采取措(cuo)施，指導種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)企業組(zu)織調劑晚(wan)稻種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)，確(que)保農業生產用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)安全。

      三、價(jia)格分(fen)析(xi)

      根(gen)據我省(sheng)21個省(sheng)級種(zhong)子市場觀測點上報(bao)的(de)(de)263個種(zhong)子價格(ge)(ge)樣本分(fen)析，今年主要夏播作物種(zhong)子價格(ge)(ge)呈(cheng)現(xian)分(fen)化走勢，常規晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)和(he)甜玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)的(de)(de)種(zhong)子價格(ge)(ge)略有下降，雜交晚(wan)稻(dao)(dao)、普通玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)和(he)糯玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)(mi)的(de)(de)種(zhong)子價格(ge)(ge)則有較(jiao)大幅度的(de)(de)上漲。其中：

      1、常規晚稻種子價格(ge)(ge)在(zai)5-8元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤之間，均價為6.48元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤，跌幅為7.43%，不(bu)同(tong)地區(qu)因種子來源(yuan)不(bu)同(tong)價格(ge)(ge)差距(ju)較大，種子價格(ge)(ge)大多在(zai)5.8-7.2元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤區(qu)間。

      2、雜交晚稻種子(zi)價(jia)(jia)格在40-100元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)之間，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)73.72元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)15.3%，最高(gao)價(jia)(jia)100元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)（突破(po)去(qu)年(nian)的(de)最高(gao)價(jia)(jia)80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)），但大多(duo)集中在50-90元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。其中：中浙優(you)(you)1號(hao)(hao)和8號(hao)(hao)、兩優(you)(you)培九種子(zi)去(qu)年(nian)零售價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)70元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，今(jin)(jin)年(nian)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)14.29%；甬(yong)優(you)(you)9號(hao)(hao)、甬(yong)優(you)(you)12、甬(yong)優(you)(you)15種子(zi)去(qu)年(nian)零售價(jia)(jia)均(jun)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)72元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，今(jin)(jin)年(nian)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)76元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、80元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、82元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，漲(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)5.56%、11.11%、13.89%；內(nei)5優(you)(you)8015、錢優(you)(you)1號(hao)(hao)種子(zi)分別為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)70元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、60元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，今(jin)(jin)年(nian)的(de)種子(zi)價(jia)(jia)格與(yu)去(qu)年(nian)持平(ping)。

      3、玉米種子中，普(pu)通玉米種子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)10-44元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)之間(jian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)24.83元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，漲幅(fu)為(wei)(wei)6.8%；糯玉米種子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)24-150元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)之間(jian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)72.18元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，漲幅(fu)為(wei)(wei)10.65%；甜玉米種子價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)48-160元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)之間(jian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)123.14元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，跌幅(fu)為(wei)(wei)5.76%。