事件描述
登海種業(002041.SZ)今日發布2012年三季度度報告,營業收入3.62億元,同比回落16.10%;歸屬于上市公司股東的(de)凈利潤(run)5709.21萬元,同比回落34.07%;每股收益0.16元,三季度(du)為-0.03元。我們認為:
事件(jian)評論(lun)
營業收入回落16.10%,毛利率同比下降2.62個百分點2012年前三季度公司實現營業收入3.62億元,同比減少16.10%,近兩年持續回落,主要系其主推品種先玉335步入衰退期所致。三季度公司實現營業收入4168.98萬元,同比增長52.38%,增速同比大幅提升47.19個百分點。三季度為傳統銷售淡季,玉米種子銷(xiao)(xiao)售旺季(ji)(ji)一般于(yu)四季(ji)(ji)度(du)啟動,但是據公司反映,相對于(yu)往年,2012-2013銷(xiao)(xiao)售季(ji)(ji)的(de)玉米(mi)種子銷(xiao)(xiao)售來款啟動較早。三季(ji)(ji)度(du)公司預收(shou)帳款為1.22億(yi)元,同比(bi)去年大幅增加1.14億(yi)元。今年種子行(xing)業普遍實施預定(ding)銷(xiao)(xiao)售,盡量避免傳(chuan)統(tong)銷(xiao)(xiao)售季(ji)(ji)的(de)激烈競爭(zheng)。
期(qi)間費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率上(shang)升(sheng)9.51個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian),凈(jing)利(li)潤同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)回(hui)落(luo)(luo)34.07%。前三(san)(san)季(ji)度公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)期(qi)間費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率為34.63%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)9.51個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian),其中銷(xiao)售費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)6.70個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian),管理費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)4.19個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian),財務費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)回(hui)落(luo)(luo)1.38個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。近幾年(nian)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)持(chi)續提(ti)(ti)升(sheng),2012年(nian)三(san)(san)季(ji)度子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)期(qi)間費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)占比(bi)(bi)(bi)62.41%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)重同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)大幅提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)9.14個(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian);母公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)期(qi)間費(fei)(fei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)保持(chi)穩(wen)定。前三(san)(san)季(ji)度公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)實現歸屬(shu)于母公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)所(suo)有者凈(jing)利(li)潤5709.21萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)回(hui)落(luo)(luo)34.07%;第三(san)(san)季(ji)度公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)實現歸屬(shu)于母公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)所(suo)有者凈(jing)利(li)潤-1202.11萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan),去(qu)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)為-926.33萬(wan)元(yuan)(yuan)。
預計2012年歸屬(shu)于母(mu)公(gong)司所有(you)者凈利(li)潤(run)同比增長:0%~30%。公(gong)司預計2012年實現歸屬(shu)于母(mu)公(gong)司所有(you)者凈利(li)潤(run)為2.32~3.02億元,同比增長0%~30%,對(dui)應EPS為0.66~0.86元。
盈利預測(ce):基于公(gong)司主推品種(zhong)(zhong)的(de)銷售情況及種(zhong)(zhong)子行業的(de)供求格局,預計公(gong)司2012~2014年EPS為0.74元(yuan)、0.94元(yuan)和1.12元(yuan),對應當前(qian)股價2012~2014年PE分別為27.25、21.38和17.91倍,維持“謹慎推薦“評級。
