種子是農(nong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產中(zhong)的(de)核心(xin)。國(guo)以農(nong)為本，農(nong)以種(zhong)(zhong)為先，種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)在(zai)農(nong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產中(zhong)具有(you)核心(xin)地位。農(nong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產效率(lv)的(de)提高依賴(lai)于(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)、化肥、農(nong)藥、灌溉等各個方(fang)面，有(you)研究資(zi)(zi)料表明(ming)過去(qu)100年農(nong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產效率(lv)提升的(de)60％來源于(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)技術。從中(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)發(fa)展(zhan)趨(qu)勢上看(kan)，由于(yu)受資(zi)(zi)源約束(shu)的(de)影響(xiang)，未來農(nong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產效率(lv)的(de)提升75-90％將來源于(yu)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)和(he)生(sheng)物技術。

　　種(zhong)業(ye)新政利好龍(long)頭企業(ye)。2011年4月下發的(de)《關于加快推進(jin)現代農(nong)作物種(zhong)業(ye)發展(zhan)的(de)意見》是(shi)指導未來(lai)種(zhong)業(ye)發展(zhan)的(de)綱領性文件。8月出(chu)臺了(le)《農(nong)作物種(zhong)子(zi)生產(chan)經營許可管理辦(ban)法》，該辦(ban)法大(da)幅提(ti)高種(zhong)子(zi)企業(ye)的(de)注冊資本、科(ke)研能力和場(chang)地設施要求。

　　行(xing)業(ye)門檻的(de)大(da)幅提高(gao)使種(zhong)(zhong)子行(xing)業(ye)加速整合(he)進入實質性階(jie)段。2012年2月中央(yang)一號文件再次強調(diao)了種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)重(zhong)要性，我們預計還(huan)會有(you)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)規(gui)劃(hua)、品種(zhong)(zhong)審定、收購兼并(bing)、制種(zhong)(zhong)基(ji)地建設等出臺(tai)扶持政策。所有(you)的(de)政策導(dao)向是培育(yu)育(yu)繁推一體化(hua)的(de)大(da)型(xing)企業(ye)，促進行(xing)業(ye)集中度快速提升(sheng)。在此背景下，種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)龍頭(tou)將迎來黃(huang)金發(fa)展(zhan)期。

　　玉米種子規模增長驅動力。我們預計玉米種子市場規模由2010年177億擴大到2015年323億元，年復合增長率為12.7％。1）玉米種植面積增長速度快于水稻。

　　2）玉米(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價格(ge)短期看漲因素:包(bao)括庫存數量穩(wen)定(ding)下(xia)降(jiang)，經營形(xing)勢(shi)趨好發展，成本上升(sheng)，糧價提(ti)(ti)高(gao)帶動“玉米(mi)包(bao)產(chan)值”提(ti)(ti)高(gao)。3）玉米(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價格(ge)中(zhong)長期看漲因素:優質品種(zhong)+優質服務”新模式推(tui)進，單粒播(bo)技(ji)術的(de)推(tui)廣提(ti)(ti)高(gao)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)均(jun)價，類比美(mei)國(guo)，玉米(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)的(de)種(zhong)糧比提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)空間巨大。

　　水稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)規模增(zeng)長驅動力。我(wo)們預計水稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場規模由2010年(nian)111億擴大到2015年(nian)222億，年(nian)復合增(zeng)長率為14.7％。驅動因(yin)素有(you)(you)1）目前我(wo)國的(de)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)商(shang)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)化(hua)(hua)(hua)率為65％，隨著雜(za)交化(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)普及(ji)、常(chang)規種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)的(de)商(shang)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)化(hua)(hua)(hua)，稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)商(shang)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)化(hua)(hua)(hua)率將大幅提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，參(can)照美(mei)國商(shang)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)化(hua)(hua)(hua)率89％，還(huan)有(you)(you)24％的(de)增(zeng)長空間。2）稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)格短期(qi)看(kan)漲因(yin)素:稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)供給結構改善，雜(za)交稻(dao)(dao)行業(ye)性清庫存完(wan)成，制種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)成本上(shang)升抬高(gao)(gao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)格，而糧(liang)價(jia)的(de)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)進(jin)一步拉高(gao)(gao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)價(jia)格；3）稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)格中長期(qi)看(kan)漲因(yin)素:“優質(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)+優質(zhi)服務”新模式推(tui)進(jin)，稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構性調整(zheng)以及(ji)市(shi)場化(hua)(hua)(hua)后種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)糧(liang)比的(de)回(hui)歸提(ti)升， 品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)推(tui)廣(guang)面積呈周期(qi)性波動。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)產品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)和其他產品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)相(xiang)似，無論是(shi)玉米(mi)，還(huan)是(shi)水稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)，每個品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)大致要經歷市(shi)場導入(ru)期(qi)、成長期(qi)、成熟(shu)期(qi)和衰退期(qi)等(deng)4個階段。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)的(de)發(fa)展是(shi)新的(de)優良品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)不斷替代(dai)落后舊品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)過程。從(cong)歷年(nian)推(tui)廣(guang)情況來(lai)看(kan)，標志性品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)推(tui)廣(guang)面積呈周期(qi)性波動。

　　推薦分別作為玉米和水稻龍頭企業的登海種業（002041）和隆平高科（000998）。登海種業是國內雜交玉米種子龍頭，登海605在本銷售季節的推廣面積有望上升至1000萬畝，另一主打品種先玉335的穩健增長，按銷售年度換算，同比增長仍在25％以上。產能擴建預計2012年完成，收購兼并或將拉開帷幕。我們預計公司2011-2012年(nian)(nian)每股收益分別為0.72和(he)1.11元。隆(long)平高科是國(guo)內雜交水稻種(zhong)子龍頭(tou)，主要(yao)產品(pin)Y 兩優1號正在放量過(guo)程(cheng)中，隨著(zhu)產品(pin)結構調整，公司水稻種(zhong)子業務毛利率水平將繼續提升，同時，玉米(mi)品(pin)種(zhong)隆(long)平206的推廣面(mian)積(ji)大幅(fu)增長。公司少數股東權益收回的想(xiang)象(xiang)空(kong)間也較(jiao)大。我們預計公司2011-2012年(nian)(nian)每股收益分別為0.45和(he)0.71元。

　　風險(xian)提(ti)示(shi)。制(zhi)種風險(xian)，銷售推廣不達預期(qi)。