來自農資行業分析人士的觀點

第三季度種業市場有望見底回升

    行業運行經濟指標

    數據來源于WIND，北(bei)京華通縱橫(heng)整理制(zhi)作

    編者(zhe)按

    近幾年，部分種子庫存嚴重，玉米、水稻種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)供(gong)過(guo)于(yu)求(qiu)，種(zhong)企(qi)數量、制(zhi)種(zhong)面積縮減，產能下降。按一般規律，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場(chang)經過(guo)兩三年(nian)的低(di)谷徘徊便會進入(ru)上升周期。去(qu)年(nian)全國農(nong)技中心的種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)產供(gong)需(xu)分析會也預(yu)測今年(nian)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)供(gong)需(xu)關系(xi)向(xiang)(xiang)好(hao)。有農(nong)資(zi)行(xing)業(ye)分析人(ren)士(shi)據行(xing)業(ye)經濟(ji)運行(xing)筑底形勢(shi)和各種(zhong)利好(hao)條(tiao)件預(yu)測三季度(du)種(zhong)業(ye)將見底回(hui)升，但也有種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)企(qi)業(ye)人(ren)士(shi)認為種(zhong)業(ye)市場(chang)風險尚未完(wan)全釋放，兩雜作物的去(qu)庫存化、去(qu)產能化尚未完(wan)成。到底哪種(zhong)觀點更有依據？種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場(chang)風向(xiang)(xiang)標(biao)指向(xiang)(xiang)何處？請讀者關注思考(kao)。

    楊益軍

    1.

    景氣回升得益于縮減面積、降低產量和利好政策的疊加效應

    包括(kuo)2015年(nian)(nian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植周期，行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積及制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)連續三(san)年(nian)(nian)大(da)幅減(jian)少。2014年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)國雜(za)交(jiao)玉米制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積295萬畝，同(tong)(tong)比下降(jiang)22.77%，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)13.6億(yi)公斤，同(tong)(tong)比下降(jiang)13.38%，全(quan)國雜(za)交(jiao)水稻制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積140萬畝，同(tong)(tong)比下降(jiang)14%，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)2.4億(yi)公斤，雙雙創2010年(nian)(nian)新(xin)低。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)下降(jiang)明顯，我們認(ren)為主(zhu)要(yao)原因在(zai)于(yu)龍頭企(qi)業(ye)(ye)主(zhu)動(dong)(dong)收縮制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積，還(huan)有就(jiu)是2014年(nian)(nian)受到惡劣氣候(hou)的(de)不利影響(xiang)，出現(xian)單產下降(jiang)。此外，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法(fa)修(xiu)訂增強了行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)發展(zhan)(zhan)預期，我們認(ren)為，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法(fa)的(de)修(xiu)訂打破(po)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)約現(xian)代農業(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)瓶(ping)頸(jing)，為我國種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)改(gai)革提供新(xin)的(de)驅動(dong)(dong)力，新(xin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法(fa)將按照現(xian)代種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)(zhan)要(yao)求，改(gai)善(shan)當前種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)經(jing)營環境，著力提升我國種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)自主(zhu)創新(xin)能力和(he)市場競爭力，構建(jian)科(ke)學(xue)合理的(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子法(fa)律制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度，促進(jin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)持(chi)續健(jian)康發展(zhan)(zhan)，并逐步推動(dong)(dong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)與國際接(jie)軌(gui)。預計將在(zai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)質(zhi)資源保護、育種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)科(ke)研體(ti)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)管理、植物品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)保護、種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子生產經(jing)營、監督管理、種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)企(qi)扶持(chi)措施、法(fa)律責任等8個方面(mian)進(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)完善(shan)和(he)規(gui)范。

    從行業(ye)供需層(ceng)面(mian)看，玉(yu)(yu)米和水(shui)稻種子的庫(ku)存量和制種面(mian)積均出現向下(xia)拐點，雜交(jiao)玉(yu)(yu)米、雜交(jiao)水(shui)稻的制種面(mian)積已下(xia)降至合理水(shui)平，2015年(nian)行業(ye)供過于求的局面(mian)整體將得到有效緩解(jie)，企業(ye)數量也將大幅下(xia)降。

    2.

    種業經濟運行已經筑底，景氣回升預計在三季度

    從(cong)行(xing)業(ye)的運行(xing)主要指(zhi)標(biao)來看(kan)，各項指(zhi)標(biao)趨向好(hao)轉，我國(guo)種業(ye)營業(ye)收入同(tong)比增(zeng)速(su)，歸屬凈(jing)利(li)(li)潤增(zeng)速(su)，從(cong)毛(mao)利(li)(li)率，銷(xiao)售凈(jing)利(li)(li)率，總市值等指(zhi)標(biao)來看(kan)，2015年(nian)一季度種業(ye)營業(ye)收入下(xia)降明顯減緩，歸屬凈(jing)利(li)(li)潤增(zeng)速(su)轉正，毛(mao)利(li)(li)率達到近期(qi)的高(gao)(gao)點，銷(xiao)售凈(jing)利(li)(li)率繼續(xu)好(hao)轉，行(xing)業(ye)市值創新高(gao)(gao)，可以研(yan)判種業(ye)經濟運行(xing)已經筑底，景氣回升預計在第三季度。（數據見(jian)文中(zhong)表格(ge)）

    從上市企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)2015年一季(ji)度營業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收入(ru)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速來(lai)看，隆平高(gao)科(ke)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長9.78%、登海種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)29.46%、農發(fa)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長50.21%、荃銀(yin)高(gao)科(ke)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長8.96%、神(shen)農大豐(feng)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)24.80%、敦煌(huang)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)11.97%、萬向德農同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)8.44%、豐(feng)樂種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)24.57%。從歸屬凈利(li)潤(run)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速來(lai)看，隆平高(gao)科(ke)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長6.28%、登海種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)16.74%、農發(fa)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)376%、荃銀(yin)高(gao)科(ke)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)21.11%、神(shen)農大豐(feng)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)157.63%、萬向德農同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長169.97%。總體而言(yan)，種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)板塊在2015年一季(ji)度仍處于筑底(di)階(jie)段。隨著連續三(san)年供給端下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)，我(wo)們預計2015年三(san)季(ji)度種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)望見底(di)回(hui)升，逐漸進入(ru)為期2-3年的(de)上行(xing)(xing)周期。其(qi)中玉米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)庫銷比(bi)(bi)有(you)望從100%逐步下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)到60%，供給面改善空間最大，對(dui)應的(de)玉米(mi)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)或將迎來(lai)量價提升的(de)投(tou)資機會(hui)。

    從市場反饋來看，2015年我國春播種子市場啟動和往年相比略晚，主要受節假日因素的影響。整體來看，2015年種子市場運行平穩，優質優價特征仍比較明顯。考慮到市場供給比較充足，預計后期市場仍將延續“普通品種平價銷售、優質產品提價銷售”的特征。因此，我們堅持認為2015年優質種子公司業績仍將穩健增長。

    3.

    政策紅利持續釋放，并購時代企業盈利能力提升

    習近平總書記強調(diao)，要下決心(xin)把民族種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)搞上(shang)去，要抓(zhua)緊培育具有(you)自主(zhu)知識(shi)產權的(de)(de)(de)優良(liang)品種(zhong)，從(cong)源頭(tou)上(shang)保障國(guo)家糧食安全。可(ke)以看出，種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)已經(jing)升至國(guo)家戰(zhan)略的(de)(de)(de)高度，未(wei)來有(you)望持續享受(shou)政(zheng)策紅利(li)。《關(guan)于深化(hua)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)體制改革提(ti)高創(chuang)新能(neng)(neng)力的(de)(de)(de)意見》、中央(yang)“一(yi)號文件”多(duo)次聚焦種(zhong)子行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，明(ming)確了深化(hua)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)體制改革的(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策措施，提(ti)出了推進現(xian)(xian)代種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)(fa)展、建設種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)強國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)目標。并(bing)購(gou)(gou)將是(shi)未(wei)來種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)龍頭(tou)擴張(zhang)的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要手(shou)段(duan)，也是(shi)政(zheng)策所鼓(gu)勵(li)的(de)(de)(de)方(fang)(fang)向，現(xian)(xian)階段(duan)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)處于低(di)迷期(qi)更是(shi)并(bing)購(gou)(gou)的(de)(de)(de)有(you)利(li)窗口期(qi)，上(shang)市公司層面，隆平高科(ke)、敦煌種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、荃銀(yin)高科(ke)、農(nong)發(fa)(fa)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、神農(nong)大豐、豐樂種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)均已公告增(zeng)發(fa)(fa)或并(bing)購(gou)(gou)等相(xiang)關(guan)事項，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)進入并(bing)購(gou)(gou)時代，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)洗牌后盈利(li)能(neng)(neng)力提(ti)升被(bei)普遍(bian)看好。目前(qian)我(wo)國(guo)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)并(bing)購(gou)(gou)多(duo)以鞏(gong)固和做強主(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)為(wei)重(zhong)要著力點，可(ke)以看到，一(yi)些大的(de)(de)(de)種(zhong)企一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面在(zai)剝離與主(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)相(xiang)關(guan)性較弱的(de)(de)(de)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，另一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面在(zai)尋求合(he)適(shi)的(de)(de)(de)并(bing)購(gou)(gou)機會(hui)，總的(de)(de)(de)來說，種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)思(si)路(lu)是(shi)逐漸向主(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)聚焦。我(wo)們認為(wei)，未(wei)來種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)并(bing)購(gou)(gou)將會(hui)側重(zhong)在(zai)兩塊：一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面是(shi)對具有(you)優勢品種(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)中小種(zhong)企的(de)(de)(de)并(bing)購(gou)(gou)，另一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面是(shi)通過并(bing)購(gou)(gou)科(ke)研院(yuan)所或者(zhe)研究型公司來補(bu)充(chong)研發(fa)(fa)能(neng)(neng)力。

    （作者系北京華通縱橫經濟信息咨詢有限公司首席(xi)研究員）

市場風險尚未釋放

       個(ge)人(ren)認為此文對(dui)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)市場(chang)形(xing)勢的(de)判斷(duan)過(guo)(guo)于(yu)樂觀。根據(ju)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)規律(lv)，產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)過(guo)(guo)剩(sheng)行業(ye)(ye)要實現(xian)(xian)反轉，實現(xian)(xian)供(gong)過(guo)(guo)于(yu)求向產(chan)(chan)銷(xiao)平衡的(de)過(guo)(guo)渡，一般都需要經過(guo)(guo)痛苦的(de)去(qu)(qu)庫(ku)存(cun)化(hua)(hua)、去(qu)(qu)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)(hua)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)。在(zai)這個(ge)過(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中，會出現(xian)(xian)大量(liang)存(cun)貨被拋售，大量(liang)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)由于(yu)現(xian)(xian)金流(liu)斷(duan)裂而關停(ting)并(bing)轉。近(jin)三年(nian)來，兩(liang)雜作(zuo)物種(zhong)子(zi)處于(yu)2000年(nian)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)市場(chang)化(hua)(hua)改革以來最為嚴峻的(de)供(gong)求失(shi)衡狀態，這里既(ji)有產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)過(guo)(guo)剩(sheng)的(de)問(wen)題，也有需求萎縮的(de)問(wen)題，這在(zai)雜交(jiao)水稻上體(ti)現(xian)(xian)得(de)非常明(ming)顯。據(ju)我們的(de)觀察，兩(liang)雜作(zuo)物的(de)去(qu)(qu)庫(ku)存(cun)化(hua)(hua)、去(qu)(qu)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)(hua)尚未(wei)完成，市場(chang)這只無(wu)形(xing)的(de)手(shou)還(huan)沒(mei)有完全釋(shi)放(fang)它的(de)力量(liang)，市場(chang)風險尚未(wei)釋(shi)放(fang)。在(zai)部(bu)分(fen)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)、部(bu)分(fen)作(zuo)物、部(bu)分(fen)環(huan)節，由于(yu)資本杠桿、業(ye)(ye)績對(dui)賭等壓力，市場(chang)風險不但(dan)沒(mei)有釋(shi)放(fang)，還(huan)在(zai)進一步聚集。

    并購或許可以帶來短期業績規模的提升，但是不能直接解決可持續發展問題。并購后的可持續發展，需要靠整合融合來實現，企業真正做大做強需要規范而有效的管理。同時，最關鍵的是，種業企業的可持續發展需要建立在科技研發等強有(you)力的核心競(jing)爭力基礎之上。因(yin)此，企業(ye)并(bing)購需要(yao)認真考(kao)慮管(guan)理(li)融合與科(ke)技研發這兩個問題。這是(shi)支撐種業(ye)企業(ye)實現良好成(cheng)長的關鍵。

    （ 作者田(tian)冰川，系(xi)中國種子集(ji)團(tuan)公司副(fu)總經理）

同質化品種仍然過剩

  ;  就此文(wen)中的觀(guan)點(dian)談幾點(dian)看法(fa)：

    關于種(zhong)子(zi)的供(gong)求(qiu)關系：一些(xie)符(fu)合(he)市場需求(qiu)的類型供(gong)需平(ping)衡，甚至供(gong)不(bu)應(ying)求(qiu)；而一些(xie)同質化的、不(bu)符(fu)合(he)市場需求(qiu)的品(pin)種(zhong)仍然嚴重(zhong)過剩(sheng)。

    關于上市(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)：因為中(zhong)國種業(ye)的(de)(de)公(gong)(gong)司(si)數量(liang)多(duo)，即使是上市(shi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)、大公(gong)(gong)司(si)所占市(shi)場份額也(ye)很少，所以，幾家大公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)數據也(ye)難(nan)代表整個(ge)種業(ye)行業(ye)的(de)(de)情(qing)況。

    關于市(shi)場啟動晚(wan)的原(yuan)因：今年種子市(shi)場啟動晚(wan)，主要原(yuan)因不是節假日(ri)，而是因近幾年種子過剩，農民已形成習慣(guan)，快(kuai)種地的時候才買(mai)。

    關于并(bing)購(gou)重組(zu)：并(bing)購(gou)重組(zu)的(de)(de)確有(you)利(li)于種(zhong)企的(de)(de)規范發展和(he)實力壯大，除文中提到的(de)(de)幾家種(zhong)企外(wai)(wai)，登海種(zhong)業(ye)的(de)(de)動作也很(hen)大。另外(wai)(wai)，其他行業(ye)融資(zi)到種(zhong)業(ye)也是種(zhong)業(ye)加速發展的(de)(de)有(you)利(li)因(yin)素。

    （作者(zhe)張桂梅，系中農集團種(zhong)業控股有(you)限公司副總經理）