冬播種子供需信息

（二〇一三年第一期）

浙江省種子總站編印                  二(er)〇一三年九月二(er)十八(ba)日

我省主要冬播農作物陸續開始供種

      為了解我省主要冬播農作物種子供需情況，我站組織對大麥、小麥、油菜、蠶(can)豆(dou)以及豌豆(dou)等作(zuo)物的種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)全(quan)省供(gong)需(xu)(xu)情況進行了(le)調(diao)查。截(jie)止9月28日，據各地種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)管(guan)理(li)部門上(shang)報統計(ji)，預(yu)計(ji)全(quan)省主要冬播作(zuo)物需(xu)(xu)要商品種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)539.81萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，超上(shang)年實(shi)際(ji)供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)86.45萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)；目前主要種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)企業已備(bei)種(zhong)(zhong)516.08萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，比上(shang)年同期增加6.44萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，雖超出上(shang)年實(shi)際(ji)供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)62.72萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，但預(yu)計(ji)仍存在23.73萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)的市(shi)場缺口，其(qi)中小麥、蠶(can)豆(dou)和(he)豌豆(dou)分別(bie)為2.47萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)、19.8萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)和(he)6.02萬(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)缺口，大(da)麥和(he)油菜(cai)已備(bei)商品種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)量總體超過市(shi)場需(xu)(xu)求。目前上(shang)述五類作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)市(shi)場供(gong)種(zhong)(zhong)均已啟動(dong)。各地應密切關(guan)注本次“菲特(te)”臺風產生的救災冬播種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)需(xu)(xu)求，及時動(dong)用(yong)儲備(bei)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)，確保用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)安全(quan)。

      一、分作物種子供應情況分析

   ;   1、大麥預計需(xu)商品種56.8萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)；各地已備(bei)商品種60.48萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)，超出市場需(xu)求3.68萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)，超上年實際供種15.29萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)；已供種0.79萬(wan)公(gong)斤(jin)。

      2、小麥預計(ji)需(xu)商(shang)品種(zhong)量(liang)為224.68萬公斤(jin)；已(yi)備商(shang)品種(zhong)222.21公斤(jin)，離(li)市場需(xu)求尚存2.47萬公斤(jin)缺口(kou)(kou)，但超出上年實際供種(zhong)9.7萬公斤(jin)，缺口(kou)(kou)的比例為1.1%，屬于緊平衡狀(zhuang)態(tai)；已(yi)供種(zhong)4.45萬公斤(jin)。

      3、油菜預計需商(shang)(shang)品種(zhong)33.6萬公(gong)斤；已備商(shang)(shang)品種(zhong)34.48萬公(gong)斤，超(chao)(chao)出市場需求(qiu)0.88萬公(gong)斤，超(chao)(chao)上年實(shi)際供(gong)種(zhong)5.36萬公(gong)斤；已供(gong)種(zhong)11.83萬公(gong)斤。

      4、蠶豆預(yu)計(ji)需商(shang)品種(zhong)(zhong)173.24萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)；已備商(shang)品種(zhong)(zhong)153.44萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，離市場需求尚存19.8萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)缺(que)口(kou)，但超出上年(nian)實(shi)際供種(zhong)(zhong)24.17萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，缺(que)口(kou)的比例達11.4%；已供種(zhong)(zhong)68.35萬公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。

      5、豌豆(dou)預計需(xu)商品種51.49萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)；已備商品種45.47萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，離(li)市場(chang)需(xu)求尚存6.02萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)缺口(kou)，但超出上年實際供種8.2萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)，缺口(kou)的(de)比例達11.7%；已供種11.25萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)。

      二、市場種子供需特點分析

      1、農戶自(zi)留種比(bi)例仍(reng)然較高。

      根據數據分析，我省大麥種子商品化率僅為14.3%，小麥種子商品化率為78.6%，油菜種子商品化率為73.1%。今年我省主要種子供應企(qi)業的(de)對種(zhong)(zhong)子市場(chang)的(de)把握比較緊，大小麥和油(you)菜(cai)種(zhong)(zhong)子供應(ying)數量比較平(ping)衡。蠶豆和豌豆這兩(liang)類作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子雖(sui)然目前(qian)有(you)一定(ding)的(de)供種(zhong)(zhong)缺口，但經銷企(qi)業對這兩(liang)類作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子有(you)一個(ge)根據市場(chang)需(xu)求陸續調入的(de)習慣，流通性比較充分，同(tong)時也(ye)可能預計需(xu)求偏高，總(zong)體上(shang)，缺口會逐步(bu)消失。

      2、各類作物種子(zi)的價(jia)格均有一(yi)定的漲幅。

      從(cong)各地提供的(de)價格信息看，受(shou)生產成本(ben)及進貨渠道影響，今(jin)年主要(yao)冬播(bo)作物種子價格總體(ti)較上年有一(yi)定幅度的(de)上漲。其中(zhong)：

      大(da)麥種子零(ling)售價(jia)在4.4-5元/公(gong)斤之間，均(jun)價(jia)為(wei)4.8元/公(gong)斤，比上年跌0.1元/公(gong)斤。

      小麥種(zhong)子零售價(jia)(jia)在4-7元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)之間，平(ping)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)格為5.54元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，比上年微(wei)漲0.15元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)。

      主(zhu)要油(you)菜種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)零售價(jia)(jia)(jia)與上年相比(bi)基(ji)本相同(tong)，常(chang)規(gui)(gui)老品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在20-60元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)之間(jian)；中端品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在60-80元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)之間(jian)；高端品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在100-200元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)之間(jian)；不(bu)考慮權重，受高價(jia)(jia)(jia)新品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)影響，常(chang)規(gui)(gui)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)平均價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)為(wei)84.99元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，比(bi)上年漲9.16元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，漲幅為(wei)12.08%；雜交種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)平均價(jia)(jia)(jia)131.43元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，比(bi)上年跌4.87元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)斤(jin)，跌幅為(wei)3.57%；常(chang)規(gui)(gui)種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)同(tong)一品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)不(bu)同(tong)品(pin)(pin)牌、不(bu)同(tong)地區差(cha)價(jia)(jia)(jia)比(bi)較明(ming)顯。種(zhong)(zhong)植品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)仍(reng)以常(chang)規(gui)(gui)種(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)主(zhu)，占90%以上。

      蠶豆種(zhong)子零售(shou)價(jia)在8-46元/公(gong)斤之間，均價(jia)為(wei)(wei)17.15元/公(gong)斤，，比上年跌1.25元/公(gong)斤，跌幅為(wei)(wei)6.8%，主流品種(zhong)價(jia)格與上年基本相同(tong)。

      豌豆種子(zi)零售價(jia)(jia)在11-75元/公(gong)斤之間，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)為24.67/公(gong)斤，比上年(nian)漲(zhang)7.27元/公(gong)斤，漲(zhang)幅為41.78%，主流品種價(jia)(jia)格均(jun)比上年(nian)有(you)所上漲(zhang)。