農技種〔2012〕27號

關于印發2012年全國主要農作物種子供需形勢分析工作會議紀要的通知

各省、自治區、直轄市種子管(guan)理(li)站（局），新疆生產建設兵團種子管(guan)理(li)站：

    為貫徹(che)落實全(quan)國農(nong)業工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)會議(yi)(yi)精神和部(bu)領導的(de)指示，及時(shi)了(le)解當前全(quan)國主要農(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場狀況，調度(du)2013年用種(zhong)(zhong)生(sheng)產計劃，研究部(bu)署今(jin)年的(de)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，3月6日—8日，我中(zhong)心在哈爾濱(bin)市召開了(le)2012年全(quan)國主要農(nong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供(gong)需形(xing)勢分析工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)會議(yi)(yi)，現將(jiang)會議(yi)(yi)紀要印發給你們，請結(jie)合(he)本(ben)單位(wei)實際情況，認真做好(hao)相關工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)。

二(er)(er)○一(yi)二(er)(er)年三月二(er)(er)十一(yi)日

2012年全國主要農作物種子供需形勢分析工作會議紀要

    為貫徹落實全(quan)國農(nong)(nong)業工作(zuo)會議精(jing)神，根據部(bu)領導關于做好今年全(quan)國主(zhu)要(yao)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子生產(chan)和供(gong)需形勢(shi)分(fen)(fen)析與種(zhong)(zhong)情調(diao)度、強化市場監測、保障農(nong)(nong)業生產(chan)用種(zhong)(zhong)安全(quan)的要(yao)求，3月6日—8日，全(quan)國農(nong)(nong)技中心在哈爾濱市召(zhao)開(kai)了(le)(le)2012年全(quan)國主(zhu)要(yao)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子供(gong)需形勢(shi)分(fen)(fen)析工作(zuo)會議，30個省(區(qu)、市)種(zhong)(zhong)子管(guan)理(li)站(zhan)（局）及新疆生產(chan)建設兵團種(zhong)(zhong)子管(guan)理(li)站(zhan)的代表參加了(le)(le)會議。會議調(diao)度了(le)(le)當前全(quan)國主(zhu)要(yao)農(nong)(nong)作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)子市場供(gong)需形勢(shi)，會商分(fen)(fen)析了(le)(le)2013年用種(zhong)(zhong)生產(chan)計劃(hua)情況，研(yan)究部(bu)署了(le)(le)今年的工作(zuo)。紀要(yao)如下：

    一、主要農作物種子市場運行情況

    目前，除黃淮海夏玉米區和西北春玉米區外，全國其它地區的水稻、玉米、棉花種子自南到北相繼進入銷售、使用高峰。市場總體運行平穩，種子供應充(chong)足、種子質量較(jiao)好(hao)、種子價格較(jiao)去年同期穩(wen)中有(you)升。

    從種子供求情況看，2011年全國雜交水稻、雜交玉米、棉花種子的生產數量加上期末有效庫存量分別為3.4億公斤、17.6億公斤、2.16億公斤左右。截止目前，除雜交水稻種子有少量出口外，總供給量沒有發生大的變化。全國雜交水稻種植面積維持在2.6億畝左右；雜交玉米種植面積小幅增長，有可能突破5億畝；由于棉花收購價格下滑，今年的種植面積可能小于7200萬畝。因精量播種，集中育秧等技術的推廣，平均畝播種量繼續呈現下降趨勢，因此上述三大作物2012年的總需種量不會超過2.7億公斤、11億公斤、1.35億公斤，總體供過于求。但東北早熟玉米、兩系雜交稻種子出現品種結構性短缺，黑龍江極早熟玉米可能因種植結構調整擠壓大豆、面積調(diao)增而(er)出現實質(zhi)性短缺，需要特別關注和合理引導。

    從市場價(jia)(jia)格情(qing)況看，目前各類種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場銷(xiao)售(shou)(shou)價(jia)(jia)格同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)穩中有升，總體平(ping)穩。但早熟玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)和兩(liang)系雜(za)(za)交(jiao)稻個別品種(zhong)漲(zhang)幅過大，要(yao)防止(zhi)過度炒作。雜(za)(za)交(jiao)水稻種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)(shou)價(jia)(jia)：華南(nan)稻區(qu)(qu)為47元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，西(xi)南(nan)和長江(jiang)中下游稻區(qu)(qu)為56元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)均(jun)在6.8%左(zuo)右(you)(you)；兩(liang)系雜(za)(za)交(jiao)稻種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)為60-80元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，三系雜(za)(za)交(jiao)稻種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)為30-60元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，暢銷(xiao)品種(zhong)Y兩(liang)優(you)1號、Y兩(liang)優(you)9918、徽(hui)兩(liang)優(you)6號等價(jia)(jia)格在100元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)左(zuo)右(you)(you)；常(chang)規稻種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場價(jia)(jia)格同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)3.9%。雜(za)(za)交(jiao)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)(shou)價(jia)(jia)：西(xi)南(nan)玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)區(qu)(qu)27.2元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)幅8.2%;東華北春玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)區(qu)(qu)25.1元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)漲(zhang)幅10%。極早熟玉(yu)(yu)(yu)米(mi)(mi)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)漲(zhang)幅較大，德美亞1號種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)高達80元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。棉花種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)平(ping)均(jun)售(shou)(shou)價(jia)(jia)：黃河流域棉區(qu)(qu)常(chang)規棉42元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，與去年基本持平(ping)；長江(jiang)流域棉區(qu)(qu)雜(za)(za)交(jiao)棉227元(yuan)(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)12%。

    從銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售方式(shi)(shi)看，種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子直(zhi)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)所(suo)占(zhan)比例進(jin)一(yi)步增大，直(zhi)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)有望成為將(jiang)來種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售的主要(yao)(yao)方式(shi)(shi)。由(you)于主要(yao)(yao)農作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子均出現供大于求(qiu)的局面(mian)，今(jin)年賒(she)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)的情(qing)況(kuang)也(ye)很普(pu)遍。各地需要(yao)(yao)高度重視(shi)這兩種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)方式(shi)(shi)可能引發的問題，創(chuang)新市場監(jian)管手段。

    二、主要農作物種子生產形勢估計

    據統(tong)計(ji)，今年全(quan)國(guo)各企(qi)業雜(za)交水稻計(ji)劃制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)約169萬畝(mu)(mu)，與去年實(shi)際制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)基本持平；雜(za)交玉米計(ji)劃制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)434萬畝(mu)(mu)左右(you)，比去年實(shi)際制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)多24萬畝(mu)(mu)。若按計(ji)劃落實(shi)，且不出現大(da)(da)的(de)(de)異常氣候，預計(ji)生產水稻種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)3億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)、玉米種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)13億(yi)公(gong)斤(jin)，加上(shang)今年播(bo)種(zhong)(zhong)結(jie)束(shu)后的(de)(de)有(you)效(xiao)庫(ku)存(cun)，預計(ji)能滿足2013年雜(za)交水稻和玉米生產、種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)貯備、出口(kou)的(de)(de)用種(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)求，并(bing)將(jiang)導致“兩雜(za)”種(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)的(de)(de)有(you)效(xiao)庫(ku)存(cun)增(zeng)大(da)(da)。今年全(quan)國(guo)棉花和大(da)(da)豆種(zhong)(zhong)植面(mian)積(ji)有(you)所(suo)下(xia)降，需(xu)種(zhong)(zhong)量下(xia)降，目前有(you)關企(qi)業還在觀望(wang)，但制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積(ji)有(you)相應減少(shao)的(de)(de)趨勢。

    從各地反(fan)映的(de)情況(kuang)看，今年主(zhu)要(yao)農(nong)作物種(zhong)(zhong)子生(sheng)產將呈現(xian)以下(xia)(xia)幾個(ge)特點(dian)：一(yi)(yi)是(shi)針對(dui)種(zhong)(zhong)子供大(da)于求的(de)局面，一(yi)(yi)些大(da)企(qi)業將會(hui)主(zhu)動(dong)調(diao)減(jian)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)，但中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)業熱情不減(jian)。二是(shi)東(dong)華北玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)基地面積(ji)下(xia)(xia)滑，玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)繼續向(xiang)新(xin)疆、甘肅河西走廊等優勢(shi)區集中(zhong)，甘肅玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)可能創歷史新(xin)高。三是(shi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)成本將會(hui)進一(yi)(yi)步(bu)攀升，地租(zu)增長在200元/畝以上(shang)，其他(ta)費用也會(hui)出現(xian)明顯上(shang)升。四是(shi)優勢(shi)種(zhong)(zhong)子生(sheng)產基地競爭更加(jia)激烈，制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)企(qi)業落(luo)實(shi)基地難度(du)進一(yi)(yi)步(bu)增大(da)，目前(qian)甘肅大(da)部分玉米(mi)(mi)(mi)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)企(qi)業還未與生(sheng)產基地簽訂合(he)同(tong)。

    年度種業信息工作要求

    會議(yi)要(yao)(yao)求各地要(yao)(yao)圍繞“準確可靠、及時有效”的(de)總要(yao)(yao)求，以提升種業信息在各級農(nong)業主管部門決(jue)策(ce)和種子(zi)企業經營中的(de)價值為工作(zuo)目標，認真做好今年的(de)種子(zi)供需形勢調度分析和市場監測(ce)工作(zuo)。

    （一）強化工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)措(cuo)施。一是(shi)(shi)完善信(xin)息(xi)監測(ce)網絡。根據部種(zhong)子(zi)局的安排，今(jin)(jin)年(nian)計劃在(zai)重點地(di)區(qu)，增加重點作(zuo)(zuo)物(wu)種(zhong)子(zi)的信(xin)息(xi)監測(ce)點。各(ge)地(di)要(yao)按(an)(an)本(ben)次(ci)(ci)會(hui)議所確定(ding)的原則，做(zuo)好監測(ce)點的調整增設布局。二是(shi)(shi)完善種(zhong)情(qing)(qing)報(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)制(zhi)度。各(ge)地(di)在(zai)例行報(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)送相關數據信(xin)息(xi)的基礎上，要(yao)綜合分(fen)析市場啟(qi)動(dong)、制(zhi)種(zhong)生產、種(zhong)子(zi)收獲等重要(yao)時(shi)段當地(di)的種(zhong)情(qing)(qing)動(dong)態，將(jiang)情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)報(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)送到全(quan)(quan)國農技中(zhong)(zhong)心。對(dui)特殊情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)和敏感信(xin)息(xi)，要(yao)隨時(shi)報(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)告(gao)。三是(shi)(shi)建立專(zhuan)(zhuan)題信(xin)息(xi)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)組(zu)。對(dui)領導重視、社(she)會(hui)關注的一些重大問題和敏感問題，成立工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)組(zu)，進(jin)行專(zhuan)(zhuan)題研究，第一時(shi)間掌握情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)。今(jin)(jin)年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國農技中(zhong)(zhong)心將(jiang)組(zu)織專(zhuan)(zhuan)題對(dui)東北(bei)早熟玉米、兩系稻種(zhong)子(zi)生產、銷(xiao)售等情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)進(jin)行專(zhuan)(zhuan)題研究，并及時(shi)發布相關情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)以指導工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)。希望(wang)各(ge)省（區(qu)、市）結合本(ben)地(di)情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)開(kai)展這項工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)。四是(shi)(shi)建立工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)通報(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)制(zhi)。各(ge)地(di)要(yao)加大工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)力度，按(an)(an)規范、按(an)(an)要(yao)求、按(an)(an)標準組(zu)織做(zuo)好種(zhong)業信(xin)息(xi)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)，摸全(quan)(quan)情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)、摸準數據，按(an)(an)時(shi)上報(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)，全(quan)(quan)國農技中(zhong)(zhong)心將(jiang)視情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)在(zai)不(bu)同層(ceng)次(ci)(ci)上通報(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)各(ge)地(di)工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)的情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)(kuang)。

    （二(er)）認(ren)真做(zuo)好種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供需(xu)形(xing)勢調(diao)度(du)。這項工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)直(zhi)接涉及到明(ming)(ming)年的(de)供種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)安(an)全(quan)，責(ze)任(ren)重(zhong)大，務必(bi)抓好。一是要(yao)(yao)(yao)及時發布種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生產指導信息。要(yao)(yao)(yao)摸準種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)企業繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)意向，預判明(ming)(ming)年需(xu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)和(he)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構，預判今年播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結束后有(you)效的(de)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)庫(ku)存量(liang)(liang)，指導種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)企業合理(li)安(an)排和(he)調(diao)整制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)計劃。二(er)是要(yao)(yao)(yao)掌握繁(fan)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)的(de)生產動態。要(yao)(yao)(yao)摸清主要(yao)(yao)(yao)農作(zuo)物(wu)各品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)實際制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積，特別關注天氣災(zai)害、病蟲災(zai)害以及田間(jian)管理(li)水平等對(dui)(dui)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)質(zhi)量(liang)(liang)和(he)產量(liang)(liang)的(de)影(ying)響，對(dui)(dui)重(zhong)點基地要(yao)(yao)(yao)開展專(zhuan)門調(diao)查，深度(du)分(fen)析。三是要(yao)(yao)(yao)準確掌握繁(fan)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)的(de)收(shou)獲情況(kuang)。在種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)收(shou)獲期(qi)，認(ren)真調(diao)查種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)的(de)單產、收(shou)購價格、脫水加(jia)工(gong)(gong)情況(kuang)，摸準總(zong)產量(liang)(liang)及其結構，對(dui)(dui)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)的(de)質(zhi)量(liang)(liang)做(zuo)出(chu)總(zong)體判斷。四(si)是認(ren)真做(zuo)好基礎性工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。要(yao)(yao)(yao)開展種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)繁(fan)育、加(jia)工(gong)(gong)、儲藏等方(fang)面(mian)的(de)技術指導和(he)技術培訓(xun)，要(yao)(yao)(yao)掌握主要(yao)(yao)(yao)農作(zuo)物(wu)播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積、播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)時令，播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)、糧食收(shou)購價格數據，為準確分(fen)析供求關系(xi)提供支(zhi)撐。

    （三）準確(que)把握(wo)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場(chang)運行情況。種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子銷售的(de)(de)價格、進(jin)度(du)、品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構等信(xin)息(xi)具有先導性、前(qian)瞻性，是農(nong)業部和(he)各(ge)級(ji)農(nong)業部門估計生產備(bei)耕情況最真實、最準確(que)的(de)(de)依據，必須(xu)(xu)(xu)按“高標準、快(kuai)半拍”的(de)(de)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求抓好這項工(gong)作。一是要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)加大監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)力度(du)。今(jin)年在監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場(chang)價格的(de)(de)同時，還要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子的(de)(de)質量(liang)、銷售方式、銷售進(jin)度(du)、品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構、農(nong)民用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)偏好等信(xin)息(xi)。對種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場(chang)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)情況明(ming)、動態清、反應(ying)快(kuai)、報告勤。二是要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)規范監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)工(gong)作。各(ge)地要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)根據所設(she)立監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)點(dian)的(de)(de)情況，進(jin)行分(fen)類(lei)指導，明(ming)確(que)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)點(dian)的(de)(de)監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)任(ren)務、監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)求、監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)方法、工(gong)作程(cheng)序、報送時限、審核(he)責任(ren)。三是要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)改善(shan)工(gong)作條(tiao)件。監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)點(dian)的(de)(de)建設(she)有望納入種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子工(gong)程(cheng)建設(she)內容(rong)，各(ge)地都要(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)深度(du)解剖一兩個監(jian)測(ce)(ce)(ce)點(dian)，列(lie)出必須(xu)(xu)(xu)配備(bei)的(de)(de)設(she)備(bei)和(he)必須(xu)(xu)(xu)支出的(de)(de)經費，以便(bian)爭(zheng)取支持(chi)。