2015年全國主要農作物種子產供需形勢分析夏季例會紀要

    2015年7月21-23日，全國農技中心在山東省泰安市召開2015年全國主要農作物種子產(chan)供需形(xing)勢分析夏季(ji)例(li)會(hui)。會(hui)議調(diao)度(du)了(le)(le)春夏播作(zuo)(zuo)物制種落實面積(ji)、當前田(tian)間長(chang)勢和秋冬種作(zuo)(zuo)物種子(zi)收獲情(qing)況(kuang)，會(hui)商了(le)(le)各(ge)地春季(ji)種子(zi)市(shi)場運行情(qing)況(kuang)和庫(ku)存情(qing)況(kuang)，分析了(le)(le)今(jin)年(nian)(nian)秋冬種作(zuo)(zuo)物和明年(nian)(nian)春季(ji)作(zuo)(zuo)物的(de)種子(zi)產(chan)供需形(xing)勢，并對下(xia)一步工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)進行了(le)(le)安(an)排部署。各(ge)省（區、市(shi)）種子(zi)管理站(zhan)（局、總站(zhan)）負(fu)責(ze)種子(zi)產(chan)供需工(gong)作(zuo)(zuo)的(de)人員、部分種子(zi)生產(chan)基地和企業代表參(can)加了(le)(le)會(hui)議。我(wo)中心(xin)鄧光聯(lian)副(fu)主任、山(shan)東省農(nong)(nong)業廳莊文忠副(fu)廳長(chang)、泰安(an)市(shi)委常(chang)委周桂萍副(fu)市(shi)長(chang)到(dao)會(hui)，農(nong)(nong)業部種子(zi)管理局有關負(fu)責(ze)同志出席會(hui)議。紀要如下(xia)：

    一、調度了春夏播主要農作物種子制種面積

    （一）玉米。今(jin)(jin)年(nian)全國雜(za)交(jiao)玉(yu)米落實制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積342萬(wan)畝(mu)，比(bi)去年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)了47萬(wan)畝(mu)，增(zeng)幅16%。其中甘肅省增(zeng)加(jia)26萬(wan)畝(mu)，新(xin)疆區增(zeng)加(jia)40萬(wan)畝(mu)，其它地(di)(di)區略減。從(cong)區域看，西(xi)北雜(za)交(jiao)玉(yu)米制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)基(ji)地(di)(di)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積已超過(guo)75%以上（產量(liang)(liang)將(jiang)占(zhan)85%左(zuo)右(you)），東北地(di)(di)區和西(xi)南地(di)(di)占(zhan)10%左(zuo)右(you)，其它地(di)(di)區已不足5%。從(cong)品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結(jie)構(gou)上看，近年(nian)來通過(guo)審定的品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積大幅上升，鄭單958等品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積繼續下降。目前各制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)基(ji)地(di)(di)田間長勢良好，但當前西(xi)北基(ji)地(di)(di)，特(te)別是新(xin)疆部分基(ji)地(di)(di)花期遭遇特(te)高溫，可能(neng)對產量(liang)(liang)構(gou)成加(jia)大影響。今(jin)(jin)年(nian)6月末(mo)庫存在7.5-8億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤，預(yu)計新(xin)產種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)13億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤左(zuo)右(you)，2016年(nian)玉(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供給(gei)總(zong)(zong)量(liang)(liang)將(jiang)超過(guo)總(zong)(zong)需種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量(liang)(liang)8.5-9億(yi)(yi)公(gong)(gong)斤，玉(yu)米種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)市場仍將(jiang)持(chi)續供過(guo)于(yu)求的局面，但品(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結(jie)構(gou)將(jiang)有加(jia)大變化(hua)。

    （二）雜交水稻。今(jin)年(nian)(nian)全國雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)水(shui)稻(dao)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)落實面積(ji)在145萬(wan)畝，比去年(nian)(nian)增加5萬(wan)畝左右。從區域看：四川(chuan)、湖南、江西等省(sheng)基(ji)地(di)(di)面積(ji)基(ji)本維(wei)持(chi)(chi)穩定(ding)，江蘇基(ji)地(di)(di)面積(ji)有所減(jian)少，福建基(ji)地(di)(di)面積(ji)有所增加。從品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)結構上(shang)看，近(jin)年(nian)(nian)來通過審定(ding)的品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)大幅上(shang)升，一些老品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積(ji)繼續(xu)下降。目前四川(chuan)省(sheng)近(jin)3000畝基(ji)地(di)(di)受(shou)(shou)災(zai)絕收，浙江省(sheng)2萬(wan)畝基(ji)地(di)(di)受(shou)(shou)災(zai)，江蘇基(ji)地(di)(di)基(ji)本正常，其他大多(duo)數制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)基(ji)地(di)(di)與往年(nian)(nian)情況大體相當。今(jin)年(nian)(nian)期(qi)末有效庫存1.1億公(gong)(gong)斤，按常年(nian)(nian)單產(chan)水(shui)平預計新產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)2.6億公(gong)(gong)斤左右，2016年(nian)(nian)雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)水(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)供給總(zong)量將超過總(zong)需種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量1.25億公(gong)(gong)斤，如后期(qi)不遇較大的自(zi)然(ran)災(zai)害(hai)，雜(za)交(jiao)(jiao)水(shui)稻(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)將繼續(xu)維(wei)持(chi)(chi)近(jin)幾年(nian)(nian)嚴重供大于求的狀態，預期(qi)市(shi)場依然(ran)在最低谷(gu)徘徊。

    （三）棉花與大豆。今年全國(guo)雜(za)交(jiao)棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)落實面(mian)(mian)積(ji)3.6萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，比去年減少1萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，預(yu)計產(chan)量330萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤，庫存約300萬(wan)(wan)公(gong)斤；全國(guo)常規棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)落實面(mian)(mian)積(ji)83萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，比去年減少20萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)以上，預(yu)計可產(chan)種(zhong)0.91億公(gong)斤，庫存0.3億公(gong)斤；全國(guo)大豆(dou)(dou)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)落實面(mian)(mian)積(ji)244萬(wan)(wan)畝(mu)，預(yu)計產(chan)量3.8億公(gong)斤。由于種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)和(he)大豆(dou)(dou)的比較效益低，近年來內地(di)棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)和(he)大豆(dou)(dou)種(zhong)植(zhi)(zhi)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)進一(yi)步下滑，因此(ci)雜(za)交(jiao)棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)與(yu)大豆(dou)(dou)的制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積(ji)也同步減少，從各(ge)地(di)反映的情況看，預(yu)計雜(za)交(jiao)棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)與(yu)大豆(dou)(dou)種(zhong)子2016年供(gong)給平衡有余，常規棉(mian)花(hua)(hua)種(zhong)子供(gong)給充足。

    三、分析了秋冬種主要農作物種子產需形勢

    （一）冬小麥。今(jin)年(nian)全(quan)國冬(dong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)繁種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)收(shou)(shou)獲面(mian)積1210萬(wan)畝，新產種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)約50億公斤(jin)。今(jin)年(nian)山東、河南(nan)江蘇等屬冬(dong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)主產區(qu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)豐收(shou)(shou)，質量(liang)(liang)總體較好。但安(an)徽、湖北局部地區(qu)冬(dong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)收(shou)(shou)獲時遭(zao)遇連(lian)陰雨天氣，導致部分種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)出(chu)現(xian)穗萌現(xian)象。預計今(jin)年(nian)秋(qiu)季全(quan)國冬(dong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)積將保持在3.5億畝左(zuo)右(you)，需商品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)33-35億公斤(jin)，今(jin)年(nian)秋(qiu)冬(dong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)麥(mai)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)充足，質量(liang)(liang)有保障，商品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)供種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)率可達80%。

    （二）冬油菜。今年(nian)全國(guo)雜(za)交(jiao)冬(dong)油菜(cai)繁種(zhong)收獲面積12.5萬(wan)(wan)畝，產種(zhong)量960萬(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)，連同(tong)年(nian)初(chu)全國(guo)雜(za)交(jiao)油菜(cai)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)有(you)效庫存180萬(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)左(zuo)右，可供種(zhong)量為1140萬(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)。預(yu)計2015年(nian)秋季全國(guo)雜(za)交(jiao)油菜(cai)需商品種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)950萬(wan)(wan)公斤(jin)，種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)供需平衡有(you)余。

    四、會議研究了下一步深化種子產供需工作措施。

    一是(shi)拓(tuo)寬作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)調(diao)度(du)范圍。要(yao)(yao)按照農(nong)業部馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)主糧化(hua)戰略部署和(he)要(yao)(yao)求，將馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)薯(shu)(shu)納入種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)產(chan)供需形(xing)勢分(fen)析工(gong)作(zuo)，摸(mo)清馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)大田用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)生(sheng)產(chan)與(yu)(yu)使(shi)用情況，為(wei)保障馬鈴(ling)薯(shu)(shu)供種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)安全(quan)打下堅實(shi)基(ji)礎；二(er)是(shi)拓(tuo)展(zhan)調(diao)度(du)分(fen)析深度(du)。要(yao)(yao)逐步(bu)將種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)產(chan)供需形(xing)勢調(diao)度(du)分(fen)析細化(hua)到(dao)區域、具體到(dao)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，更及時有效地引導種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產(chan)銷售；三是(shi)調(diao)整種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)情監(jian)測調(diao)查(cha)點(dian)(dian)。要(yao)(yao)根據作(zuo)物種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)植結構調(diao)整和(he)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產(chan)區域的變化(hua)，及時調(diao)整種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)(zi)生(sheng)產(chan)與(yu)(yu)市場運行監(jian)測點(dian)(dian)，同(tong)時創造條件，增加(jia)監(jian)測點(dian)(dian)數(shu)量，提高重點(dian)(dian)區域監(jian)測點(dian)(dian)密度(du)，確保監(jian)測數(shu)據的代表(biao)性和(he)準確性。

    五、會議安排下一階段的幾項重點工作

    會議要求，各地在全國主要農作物產供需形勢秋季例會前要重點完成以下三項工作：一是種子生育動態監測。“兩雜”種子主產區要密切監測當前南方洪澇和西北高溫等災害對制種的影響，及時啟動防災救災應急預案，強化技術指導和措施落實，期間遇到重大情況要及時上報全國農技中心。二是秋冬種種情調度。秋冬種作物種植區要加大備種調查力度和頻度，實時監測市場運行情況，特別是安徽、湖北和河南南部受災地區，要加強小麥種子質量檢驗和市場監管，防止不合格種子流入市場；三是基礎數據基本情況統計調查，要及時掌握今年各主要農作物的用種面積、用種量、商品化率等基礎數據，品種結構變化情況，農民選種偏好和企業營銷方式的(de)變化，并對明(ming)年(nian)的(de)相關情況作出預測。