3月底，全國農業技術推廣服務中心在廣西南寧召開了2016年全國主要農作物種子產供需(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)分析春季例會(hui)(hui)。會(hui)(hui)議調度了春夏播作物(wu)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)生產意向(xiang)，會(hui)(hui)商了秋冬種(zhong)作物(wu)田間長(chang)勢(shi)和春季種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)市場運行態勢(shi)，研討(tao)部(bu)署了全年工作重點。29個省(sheng)（自(zi)治區、直轄市）種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)管理(li)(li)站(zhan)（局、總站(zhan)）、新疆生產建(jian)設兵(bing)團種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)管理(li)(li)總站(zhan)負(fu)責(ze)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)產需(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)分析工作人(ren)(ren)員及部(bu)分省(sheng)種(zhong)子(zi)(zi)(zi)管理(li)(li)站(zhan)的負(fu)責(ze)人(ren)(ren)參加了會(hui)(hui)議。

    一、春夏播作物種子生產意向

    （一）玉米計(ji)劃制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。今年全國計(ji)劃制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積357萬(wan)畝(mu)，比去年實際制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積增加15萬(wan)畝(mu)，增長4%。今年制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)意向(xiang)表現(xian)出繼續向(xiang)優勢(shi)區集中、優勢(shi)基地(di)出現(xian)分(fen)化以(yi)及新審定(ding)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積占比擴大(da)等三大(da)特點。甘(gan)肅、新疆兵(bing)團制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積共(gong)擴大(da)17萬(wan)畝(mu)，部分(fen)在(zai)甘(gan)肅武威市(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)的企業移向(xiang)甘(gan)肅省(sheng)其(qi)他地(di)市(shi)，鄭單958等大(da)的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積出現(xian)不同(tong)程度(du)的下降，新審定(ding)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)組合數量明顯(xian)增多(duo)、規模擴大(da)。按此計(ji)劃落實，新產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)滿足(zu)明年大(da)田用(yong)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有余，庫(ku)存(cun)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子(zi)足(zu)以(yi)應對制(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)自然(ran)風(feng)險。

    （二）雜交稻(dao)(dao)計(ji)劃制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。全(quan)國(guo)計(ji)劃制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積151萬畝，比(bi)去年實際制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加6萬畝，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4%。今年制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)意(yi)向表(biao)現出(chu)江(jiang)(jiang)蘇兩(liang)系(xi)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子基(ji)(ji)地(di)繼續外(wai)移、早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)大(da)(da)以(yi)(yi)及兩(liang)系(xi)稻(dao)(dao)品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積持續增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)等三大(da)(da)特點，預(yu)計(ji)將有(you)2~4萬畝的兩(liang)系(xi)雜交稻(dao)(dao)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)由江(jiang)(jiang)蘇省基(ji)(ji)地(di)轉向福建、湖南、江(jiang)(jiang)西等基(ji)(ji)地(di)，全(quan)國(guo)早(zao)稻(dao)(dao)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)14%左(zuo)右(you)，兩(liang)系(xi)稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)制(zhi)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)(mian)積增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6%左(zuo)右(you)。如氣(qi)候正常，新產(chan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子將超出(chu)明(ming)年大(da)(da)田需求4000萬公(gong)斤以(yi)(yi)上，但雜交稻(dao)(dao)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子生產(chan)自然風險大(da)(da)，部分(fen)庫存種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子的質(zhi)量下(xia)降(jiang)，一(yi)(yi)些企業積壓(ya)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)子市場不對路，因此明(ming)年的供需形勢有(you)待于進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步觀察(cha)。

    （三）其他作物制種。棉花種子生產面積繼續調減，比去年減少4%。其中雜交棉調減至1.88萬畝，常規棉調減至73萬畝。受國家扶持大豆恢(hui)復性生(sheng)產的政策(ce)利好影(ying)響，大豆計(ji)劃繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積增加至(zhi)298萬(wan)畝(mu)，增幅20%以上。常規(gui)稻(dao)計(ji)劃繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積基本與去年(nian)持平(ping)，為165萬(wan)畝(mu)。馬(ma)鈴薯計(ji)劃繁(fan)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面(mian)(mian)積增加至(zhi)461萬(wan)畝(mu)。按此規(gui)模計(ji)算，除(chu)雜交棉(mian)新產一代棉(mian)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)供需(xu)(xu)平(ping)衡外，其他作物今年(nian)產種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)量都(dou)可以滿足明年(nian)大田(tian)用種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)需(xu)(xu)求。

    二、秋冬種作物種子田間長勢

    全國冬小麥落實繁種面積1142萬畝，冬油菜種子(zi)生產(chan)面積(ji)13萬(wan)畝。據各制種省份反映，當前冬(dong)小麥(mai)和(he)冬(dong)油(you)(you)菜種子(zi)田間(jian)(jian)長勢總體良好，盡管河南和(he)山東部分區域受低溫凍害和(he)干旱影(ying)響，小麥(mai)苗情不夠理想，但返青拔節(jie)期(qi)間(jian)(jian)加(jia)強(qiang)管理，估計災害對(dui)產(chan)量影(ying)響不大。生長后期(qi)若(ruo)不發生重大災害，預計冬(dong)小麥(mai)產(chan)種48億公斤(jin)(jin)，冬(dong)油(you)(you)菜產(chan)種1173萬(wan)公斤(jin)(jin)，新產(chan)種子(zi)能夠確保今年秋冬(dong)種供種安全。

    全國農業技術推(tui)廣服務中心提供