農業(ye)部農村經濟研究中心(xin)

　　10月25日，農業部農村經濟研究中心在京舉辦了“2009/10農村經濟形勢分析與展望會”并發布了《2009年中國農村政策執行報告》。

　　農業部農村經濟研究中心主任宋洪遠首先介紹了《2009年中國農村政策執行報告》（以下簡稱《報告》）的主要內容。報告首先分析了2009年以來農業農村經濟發展基本情況。一是今年農業農村經濟發展經受住了國際金融危機影響加深和發生歷史罕見特大旱災等自然災害的雙重考驗，保持穩定發展的良好勢頭。糧食總產在高基數上有望實現連續6年增加，農民工就業形勢好轉，農民收入增長好于預期，工農城鄉關系出現結構性改善。全年發展態勢表現為：一季度跌入谷底，二季度止跌回穩，三季度企穩向好，全年“保供給、促增收”的目標能夠實現。二是主要農產品生產保持穩定發展的態勢，市場價格相對平穩。受需求下降和國內外差價加大等因素的影響，我國農產品出口額同比降幅較大，展望后市，在國家政策有力的調控下，水稻、小麥價格可能小幅走高，大豆、棉花等(deng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)將保(bao)(bao)(bao)持(chi)(chi)平穩(wen)(wen)，生(sheng)豬、肉(rou)雞等(deng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)還可能小幅(fu)回升。三(san)是根據對全國12個(ge)省的(de)117個(ge)縣問(wen)卷調查，今(jin)(jin)年中央(yang)出臺實(shi)施(shi)的(de)增加(jia)(jia)財政支(zhi)(zhi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)投入(ru)、強化農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)支(zhi)(zhi)持(chi)(chi)、加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)公益事(shi)業(ye)(ye)和社(she)會事(shi)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)、擴大農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)消費、推進農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)各項改革等(deng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)主要政策(ce)措(cuo)施(shi)執行(xing)(xing)情(qing)況總體較好(hao)，但(dan)也存在著地區之間執行(xing)(xing)情(qing)況不平衡、一(yi)些措(cuo)施(shi)沒有落實(shi)到位等(deng)問(wen)題(ti)。報(bao)告接著分析了當前(qian)和今(jin)(jin)后(hou)一(yi)個(ge)時期推進農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)經(jing)濟穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)面臨的(de)挑戰與(yu)困難(nan)。主要是宏觀經(jing)濟運行(xing)(xing)態勢仍不明(ming)朗(lang)、統籌城鄉發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)正處在重要時期、統籌區域發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)任務(wu)艱(jian)巨、國際貿易環(huan)境仍然嚴峻等(deng)，使得繼續保(bao)(bao)(bao)持(chi)(chi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)經(jing)濟良好(hao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)勢頭(tou)難(nan)度加(jia)(jia)大。展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)望2010年農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)工作，報(bao)告最后(hou)建議明(ming)年農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)經(jing)濟發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的(de)目標任務(wu)可以明(ming)確(que)為“兩穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)兩促進”，即保(bao)(bao)(bao)持(chi)(chi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，保(bao)(bao)(bao)持(chi)(chi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)社(she)會穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)(ding)，促進農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)勞動力轉移就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)，促進農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)民收入(ru)持(chi)(chi)續增長，主要措(cuo)施(shi)包括抓緊構建現代農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)體系，加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)轉變農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)方式，完善財政支(zhi)(zhi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)政策(ce)體系，完善農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)調控政策(ce)體系，加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)推進農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)金融服務(wu)創新以及實(shi)施(shi)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)(cun)區域發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)戰略等(deng)。

　　中國(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)體制改革研究會(hui)國(guo)(guo)民經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)研究所(suo)王(wang)小(xiao)魯副所(suo)長(chang)、國(guo)(guo)家統計局(ju)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村司王(wang)萍萍副司長(chang)、中國(guo)(guo)社(she)會(hui)科(ke)學院人口與勞(lao)動經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)研究所(suo)社(she)會(hui)保障研究室王(wang)德文主(zhu)任應(ying)邀出席分析展望會(hui)，并圍繞(rao)宏觀經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)運行(xing)情況、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業生產和農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)形(xing)勢、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村政策執(zhi)行(xing)情況、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村勞(lao)動力轉移就業、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產品價格和市場、當前農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)發展所(suo)面臨的挑戰以(yi)及(ji)促進(jin)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村經(jing)濟(ji)(ji)(ji)穩(wen)定發展的思路等問題進(jin)行(xing)了探討和交流(liu)。

　　在京部分(fen)新聞(wen)單位(wei)記(ji)者(zhe)和農研(yan)(yan)中心部分(fen)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)人員出席了會議。

　　據(ju)介紹，今后農(nong)(nong)(nong)研中(zhong)(zhong)心將每年(nian)定期(qi)舉辦農(nong)(nong)(nong)村經濟形勢分析(xi)與展望會，發表年(nian)度中(zhong)(zhong)國農(nong)(nong)(nong)業政(zheng)策執行報告，邀請(qing)專(zhuan)家學者共同就當年(nian)農(nong)(nong)(nong)業與農(nong)(nong)(nong)村經濟發展中(zhong)(zhong)的重點和熱點問題進行探討和交流，并形成對策建議，提交中(zhong)(zhong)央和國務院有關部門(men)參考。